Mortgage Rates Today, Jan. 7, 2025: Employment Week Starts Today
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 7.05% today, an increase of 0.05% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 6.09%, the same as one day ago. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.3%, having risen by 0.04. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.27%, reflecting an increase of 0.03%.
The bigger picture
Yesterday, we reported The Financial Times' observation that "Investors have no clue what the returning President Trump will actually do."
On cue, later that morning, The Washington Post tried to pin down at least one of President-elect Donald Trump's signature policies.
It said Trump aides already had advanced plans for implementing tariffs on all countries. But, at least initially, those would apply only to "critical imports" rather than a full range of goods.
"Two weeks before Trump takes office, his aides are still discussing plans to impose import duties on goods from every country, [sources in the transition team] said," reported the Post. "But rather than apply tariffs to all imports, the current discussions center on imposing them only on certain sectors deemed critical to national or economic security — a shift that would jettison a key aspect of Trump’s campaign pledge, at least for now, said [its sources], who cautioned that no decisions have been finalized and that planning remains in flux. The people spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private conversations."
Investors could respond to this with joy or despair. On the one hand, initially limiting tariffs causes the risk of higher inflation to somewhat recede — or at least delays it.
On the other hand, it shows Trump is serious about quickly imposing those duties and might well later fulfill his promises of steep tariffs across the board.
Employment week
To investors, employment is probably the most sensitive element of the economy at the moment. So, this week's four reports on jobs could well affect mortgage rates.
By far the most consequential of the four is Friday's jobs report. But, sometimes, the job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS), due this morning, can have an effect. Each JOLTS provides an opportunity for markets to peek under the hood of the labor market.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 7.05% | 7.08% | +0.05% | +0.51% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 6.09% | 6.15% | +0% | +0.44% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.3% | 7.13% | +0.04% | +0.5% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.35% | 6.51% | +0.05% | +0.53% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.24% | 6.38% | -0.01% | +0.47% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.27% | 7.3% | +0.03% | +0.22% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.96% | 6.99% | +0.06% | +0.46% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 7.12% | 7.15% | +0.04% | +0.47% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 6.07% | 6.13% | +0% | +0.43% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.29% | 7.12% | +0.04% | +0.49% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.35% | 6.5% | +0.05% | +0.52% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.97% | 7.01% | +0.02% | +0.36% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
Mortgage rates today
Here are market expectations for today's economic reports, according to MarketWatch:
- November JOLTS (see above) — Markets expect 7.7 million job openings, unchanged since October
- December purchasing managers index (PMI) for the services sector from the Institute of Supply Management — 53.4%, up from November's 52.1%
- November trade deficit — $78.4 billion, up from October's $73.8 billion
To stand a good chance of lower mortgage rates, we'd need fewer job openings and a lower PMI than markets are expecting. Higher-than-expected numbers could push those rates higher, while on-forecast ones often leave them unchanged.
Trade deficits rarely affect mortgage rates, but, if anything, they'd likely benefit from a higher-than-expected figure.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow brings two employment reports, starting with the one from ADP. This measures job creation only in the private sector, which limits its usefulness. Still, markets sometimes regard it as a bellwether for Friday's blockbuster official jobs report.The other comprises the number of new claims for unemployment benefits ("initial jobless claims") during the week ending Jan. 4.
The minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve's rate-setting body are due at 2 p.m. Eastern tomorrow afternoon. Comerica Bank economists say, "Markets will intensely scrutinize the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) December meeting after the Committee’s unexpectedly hawkish cut last month. Members’ justifications for raising their inflation projections will be in particular focus, as will their deliberations about the economic impact of the incoming administration’s policies."
Later in the week
This week's schedule of reports has been amended to allow for the funeral of President Jimmy Carter. The federal government will be closed on Thursday in his honor.
Then, Friday brings the almighty jobs report. Strap in for that one.
