Mortgage Rates Today, Feb. 28, 2025: Key Inflation Report Due This Morning
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.56% today, a decrease of 0.05% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.65%, down by 0.03%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.86%, having dropped by 0.03. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.99%, reflecting a decrease of 0.04%.
The bigger picture
This morning, we're due the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. And markets are expecting small falls in the year-over-year (YOY) rates of price rises.
Regular readers will know the importance of market expectations to how mortgage rates move once a report has landed. With inflation data, such as today's, we'll likely need to see not just lower figures but lower-than-expected figures for those rates to fall.
Higher-than-expected numbers may send mortgage rates upward, and as-expected ones often leave them untouched.
Today's is the first of three crucial reports scheduled over the next couple of weeks. In seven days' time, we are due the monthly jobs report and the week after that the consumer price index (CPI).
Nobody yet seems sure how quickly the current round of public-sector firings will show up in employment data. When it does have an impact, that could be good for mortgage rates. Investors believe that rising unemployment will spur the Federal Reserve to begin cutting general interest rates again.
However, some economists believe that new tariffs could push up prices. And any rise in the inflation rate would likely push mortgage rates higher.
So, we might soon be in for a tussle between two conflicting forces. All any of us can do is watch how that plays out.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.56% | 6.59% | -0.05% | -0.33% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.65% | 5.7% | -0.03% | -0.28% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.86% | 6.69% | -0.03% | -0.34% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.94% | 6.08% | -0.07% | -0.34% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6% | 6.15% | -0.07% | -0.19% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.99% | 7.01% | -0.04% | -0.25% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.89% | 6.94% | +0.04% | -0.14% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.66% | 6.69% | -0.05% | -0.28% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.63% | 5.69% | -0.03% | -0.28% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.85% | 6.68% | -0.04% | -0.34% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.98% | 6.12% | -0.06% | -0.31% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.81% | 6.86% | -0.09% | +0.01% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
Mortgage rates today
Like all price indexes, this morning's report breaks down into four headline figures. Two of those four cover the reporting month (January) and the other two are year-over-year (YOY) figures (Feb. 1, 2024-Jan. 31, 2025).
There are two numbers for each period. The first is the straight PCE price index, which measures price changes across all the items in the survey. The second is the "core" inflation figure, which is the same except that it excludes food and energy prices. Economists like core inflation data because it excludes the most volatile prices and reveals the underlying trend.
According to MarketWatch, markets are expecting the following from this morning's report:
- January PCE index — Expected to rise by 0.3%, the same rate as in December
- YOY PCE index — Expected to rise by 2.5%, more slowly than December's 2.6%
- January core index — Expected to rise by 0.3%, more quickly than December's 0.2%
- YOY core index — Expected to rise by 2.6%, more slowly than December's 2.8%
Remember, lower-than-expected numbers tend to send mortgage rates downward.
Having done some clever math to the CPI figures earlier this month, markets reckon they know what's coming this morning. If they're wrong, expect fireworks.
