Mortgage Rates Today, Feb. 27, 2025: Potential for Volatility Today as Key Data Lands
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.61% today, a decrease of 0.02% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.68%, down by 0.04%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.9%, having dropped by 0.03. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.03%, reflecting no change.
The bigger picture
Reports on gross domestic product (GDP) and durable goods orders often pass by almost unnoticed by investors. But, with markets spooked by recent weak economic data, we can't take that for granted today. See below for details of what markets are expecting later this morning.
Typically, when numbers are weaker than expected, mortgage rates tend to move lower. But better-than-expected figures often push them higher. Normally, weaker means lower, but there are exceptions for inflation reports, the unemployment rate and others.
Note how important market expectations are. Many investors trade ahead of reports based on those expectations. So, volatility arises when there's a gap between a report's actual figures and what's expected.
Most months, there's a clear hierarchy among economic reports when it comes to impacts on markets. Recently, jobs reports have tended to generate the most volatility, followed by the consumer price index (CPI). At the other end of the spectrum, some reports almost never affect markets and mortgage rates.
The ones due today and tomorrow tend to be between those two groups. They can have an impact but don't always do so. Perhaps this month they're more likely to have an effect than usual.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.61% | 6.64% | -0.02% | -0.3% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.68% | 5.73% | -0.04% | -0.3% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.9% | 6.73% | -0.03% | -0.34% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.01% | 6.15% | -0.01% | -0.3% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.07% | 6.21% | +0% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.03% | 7.05% | +-0% | -0.24% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.85% | 6.89% | +-0% | -0.17% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.7% | 6.73% | -0.02% | -0.3% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.66% | 5.71% | -0.03% | -0.31% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.89% | 6.71% | -0.05% | -0.33% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.04% | 6.18% | -0.01% | -0.28% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.89% | 6.94% | -0.03% | +0.1% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
Here's what economists at Comerica Bank are expecting for the rest of this week's reports:
"The week’s most important economic releases include the second estimate of fourth-quarter GDP, personal income and outlays for January as well as the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation .... GDP growth is forecast to be revised higher in the second estimate due to upward revisions to residential and nonresidential investment."
Mortgage rates today and tomorrow
Today, we're due the second reading (of three) of gross domestic product (GDP) during the fourth quarter of last year. This is the main measure of economic growth, and, given Wall Street's current fears, may be more consequential than usual. Comerica Bank says this morning's reading is likely to be higher than the previous one, but MarketWatch shows it as holding steady at 2.3%. We'll know who's right in a few hours.
According to MarketWatch, other reports due today include:
- January durable goods orders — Expected to improve sharply, growing 2% compared with December's -2.2% contraction
- Pending home sales, both for January — Expected to contract more slowly: by -1% compared with December's -5.5%
- Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits for the seven days ending on Feb. 22 — Expected to increase by 225,000 compared with the previous week's 219,000. This is one of those reports where a higher number suggests weakness, which might lead to lower mortgage rates
None of these typically moves mortgage rates far or for long. But markets are in a skittish mood so anything's possible.
Stand by for January's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index tomorrow. This is the Federal Reserve's favorite gauge of inflation and may well prove this week's most important report.
