Mortgage Rates Today, Feb. 26, 2025: Rates Down Yet Again
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.63% today, a decrease of 0.01% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.72%, down by 0.01%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.93%, having dropped by 0.01. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.04%, reflecting a decrease of 0.05%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates are appreciably lower now than at the start of February. According to Mortgage News Daily's rates archive, they started the month at 7.05% for a 30-year fixed-rate loan. Yesterday, that same rate closed at 6.80%.
So, what's going on? Well, MarketWatch suggested yesterday afternoon, "The vibes are shifting on Wall Street. Popular gauges of investor sentiment are showing that the pervasive sense of optimism ... in November has mostly faded. In its place, a creeping sense of uncertainty surrounding the outlook for the U.S. economy has started to emerge."
And, yesterday evening, Bloomberg concurred with an article under the headline, "Stocks get hit as economic jitters spur bond rally."
It's that bond rally that is behind falling mortgage rates. Those are largely determined by yields on a particular sort of bond, namely the mortgage-backed security (MBS).
As investors flee what is increasingly perceived as a risky stock market, they often buy bonds as a relatively safe asset. The extra demand pushes bond prices higher, which — and this is a mathematical inevitability — pulls bond yields (and, with MBSs, mortgage rates) lower.
This perception of riskiness — boosted yesterday by an unexpectedly poor consumer confidence index — can become a self-fulfilling prophecy if it leads to a stampede away from stocks. But we suspect we're a way off that at the moment.
Yes, it could yet turn out that way. But whether it does may depend on economic data that emerges over the next couple of weeks. Next Friday's jobs report might be especially influential, as could the following week's consumer price index.
In the meantime, sit back and enjoy the ride.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.63% | 6.67% | -0.01% | -0.33% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.72% | 5.77% | -0.01% | -0.26% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.93% | 6.76% | -0.01% | -0.31% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.01% | 6.16% | +0% | -0.27% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.07% | 6.21% | +0.01% | -0.13% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.04% | 7.06% | -0.05% | -0.2% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.86% | 6.9% | -0.01% | +0.08% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.72% | 6.75% | -0.02% | -0.3% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.69% | 5.74% | -0.01% | -0.27% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.94% | 6.76% | +-0% | -0.28% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.04% | 6.19% | -0.02% | -0.26% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.93% | 6.98% | +0.01% | +0.1% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
Here's what economists at Comerica Bank are expecting for the rest of this week's reports:
"The week’s most important economic releases include the second estimate of fourth-quarter GDP, personal income and outlays for January as well as the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, and consumer confidence for February. GDP growth is forecast to be revised higher in the second estimate due to upward revisions to residential and nonresidential investment. Both personal income and outlays likely grew slower in
January after robust gains in December. The trade deficit in goods probably narrowed in January after widening sharply in December."
Mortgage rates today and later in the week
The only report on today's MarketWatch economic calendar covers new home sales in January. They're expected to drop to 671,000 from 698,000 in December. But these figures rarely affect mortgage rates.
Lower-than-expected figures tend to be good for mortgage rates while higher-than-expected ones often push them upward.
Tomorrow, we're due the second reading (of three) of gross domestic product (GDP) during the fourth quarter of last year. This is the main measure of economic growth, and, given Wall Street's current fears, may be more consequential than usual. Comerica Bank says tomorrow's reading is likely to be higher than the previous one, but MarketWatch shows it as holding steady at 2.3%. We'll soon see who's right.
Other reports due tomorrow include durable goods orders and pending home sales, both for January. Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits for the seven days ending on Feb. 22 are also scheduled for tomorrow. None of these typically move mortgage rates far. But markets are in a skittish mood so anything's possible.
Stand by for January's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index on Friday. This is the Federal Reserve's favorite gauge of inflation and may well prove this week's most important report.
