Mortgage Rates Today, Feb. 25, 2025: Market Caution Inches Rates Lower
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.64% today, a decrease of 0.12% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.72%, down by 0.11%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.94%, having dropped by 0.12. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.09%, reflecting a decrease of 0.05%.
Bigger Picture
Yesterday, MarketWatch advanced three theories why yields on 10-year Treasury notes (with which mortgage rates have a close relationship) edged lower that day:
- 10-year yield ends at lowest level of 2025 as stagflation fears linger
- 2-, 10-year yields end at 2025 lows as investors navigate fears about growth
- 10-year Treasury yield near 2025 low following Friday's weak data
All three are closely related. Stagflation is a portmanteau word for stagnant growth combined with uncomfortably warm inflation. Economists frequently used it in the 1970s and early '80s.
In short, disappointing economic data recently have caused a fear of weak growth and too-high inflation to stalk Wall Street again. So far, that's been good for mortgage rates.
And weak or negative growth will likely continue to drag mortgage rates downward. However, inflation is kryptonite to bond investors, and if prices begin to rise too rapidly, that will probably exert upward pressure on those and other interest rates.
We'll have to wait to see how those conflicting forces — if they arise, which is far from certain — play out this time around. But a glance at Freddie Mac's archive of mortgage rates (XLS spreadsheet) shows rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages ending the '70s at 12.9% before peaking at 18.63% in September 1981 when inflation was finally reined in.
Of course, nobody's expecting those sorts of mortgage rates anytime soon. But you can see why even a remote possibility of such powerful forces affecting the economy has Wall Street spooked.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.64% | 6.68% | -0.12% | -0.37% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.72% | 5.78% | -0.11% | -0.33% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.94% | 6.77% | -0.12% | -0.42% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.01% | 6.16% | -0.12% | -0.39% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.06% | 6.2% | -0.16% | -0.27% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.09% | 7.11% | -0.05% | -0.19% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.86% | 6.91% | -0.16% | -0.02% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.74% | 6.77% | -0.1% | -0.37% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.7% | 5.75% | -0.12% | -0.35% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.94% | 6.77% | -0.12% | -0.4% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.06% | 6.21% | -0.12% | -0.34% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.91% | 6.96% | +0.1% | +-0% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
Here's what economists at Comerica Bank are expecting for the rest of this week's reports:
"The week’s most important economic releases include the second estimate of fourth-quarter GDP, personal income and outlays for January as well as the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, and consumer confidence for February. GDP growth is forecast to be revised higher in the second estimate due to upward revisions to residential and nonresidential investment. Both personal income and outlays likely grew slower in
January after robust gains in December. The trade deficit in goods probably narrowed in January after widening sharply in December. Concerns about tariffs and layoffs of Federal employees and contractors likely weighed on consumer confidence, pushing the index down for a third consecutive month. House price increases likely moderated in the final month of last year."
Mortgage rates today and later in the week
One of Comerica's "most important economic releases" is on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. That's February's consumer confidence index, which is important because confidence props up consumer spending, which accounts for a large chunk of the economy.
Markets are expecting the index to decline to 102.4, down from the previous reading of 104.1. Lower-than-expected figures tend to be good for mortgage rates while higher-than-expected ones often push them upward.
Tomorrow, we're due the second reading (of three) of gross domestic product (GDP) during the fourth quarter of last year. This is the main measure of economic growth, and, given Wall Street's current fears, may be more consequential than usual. Comerica Bank says tomorrow's reading is likely to be higher than the previous one, but MarketWatch shows it as holding steady at 2.3%. We'll soon see who's right.
Stand by for January's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index on Friday. This is the Federal Reserve's favorite gauge of inflation and may well prove this week's most important report.
