Mortgage Rates Today, Feb. 21, 2025: Treasury Sec. Helps Rates
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.78% today, a decrease of 0.03% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.91%, down by 0.02%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.11%, having dropped by 0.01. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.12%, reflecting a decrease of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made remarks yesterday morning that helped mortgage rates that day. Here's Yahoo! Finance's take on what happened when he appeared on the Bloomberg Surveillance TV show:"Bessent said that any move to boost the share of longer-term Treasuries in government debt issuance is some ways off, given current hurdles that include elevated inflation and the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening program."
Mortgage rates are loosely tied to one form of longer-term government debt, the 10-year Treasury note. The yields on mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) that determine mortgage rates don't always move in lockstep with those notes but there's an undeniably close relationship over time.
Some bond investors feared that government debt might soon soar, throttling demand for 10-year notes and forcing up MBS yields and mortgage rates as it did so. So, Bessent's remarks reassured them that changes in the mix of government debt issuance were some way off.
That led to a moderate fall in mortgage rates yesterday, which almost exactly mirrored Tuesday's rise. So, mortgage rates start this morning unchanged since their close last Friday, according to Mortgage News Daily's rate archive. Luckily for us, last Friday's close was a two-month low for those rates.
Further ahead
Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Banker's Association have both now published their February forecasts of future mortgage rates. And little has changed since January.
Neither of them expects the monthly average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to dip below 6.4% this year or in 2026. That's a tiny drop from where they are today over such an extended time frame. Indeed, the MBA forecast extends to the following year, and it's expecting 6.4% in 2027, too.
All this reinforces a message that we've been delivering for several months now. Namely, if you're hanging around for significantly lower mortgage rates before you enter the housing market, move home, or refinance, you could have a very long wait.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.78% | 6.82% | -0.03% | -0.19% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.91% | 5.97% | -0.02% | -0.1% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.11% | 6.94% | -0.01% | -0.13% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.23% | 6.38% | +0% | -0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.22% | 6.36% | +-0% | -0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.12% | 7.14% | -0.01% | -0.1% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.78% | 6.82% | +-0% | +-0% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.88% | 6.91% | -0.03% | -0.16% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.9% | 5.95% | -0.02% | -0.1% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.1% | 6.93% | +-0% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.29% | 6.43% | +0% | +0.01% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.82% | 6.86% | +0% | -0.04% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
On Monday, Comerica Bank delivered its weekly summary of what it's expecting this week:
"S&P Global’s February Flash Manufacturing PMI [purchasing managers' index] will probably show the sector’s consolidation in expansionary territory, while the Services PMI is anticipated to show service providers’ rebound from the weather-related slump in January."
Mortgage rates today
We're due two "flash" (preliminary) purchasing managers' indexes from S&P Global later this morning, according to the MarketWatch calendar. PMIs are surveys of organizations' buying departments so can provide useful insights into future economic activity.
However, those from S&P tend to be less influential than those from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). So, we'll be surprised if today's — one each for the services and manufacturing sectors in February — move mortgage rates far. Indeed, even ISM ones typically typically affect those rates in a limited and temporary way.
Also this morning, we're expecting the final consumer sentiment survey for February and existing home sales in January. But, again, they're unlikely to do more than give mortgage rates a gentle nudge.
Next week may be similarly dull right up until Friday when the Federal Reserve's favorite gauge of inflation is due. Unless, of course, unscheduled news roils markets before then.
