Mortgage Rates Today, Feb. 20, 2025: Rates Becalmed as Fed Minutes Held No Surprises
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.81% today, a decrease of 0.06% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.93%, down by 0.04%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.12%, having dropped by 0.03. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.13%, reflecting a decrease of 0.05%.
The bigger picture
Yesterday's minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve's rate-setting body, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), were very close to what investors were expecting. So, there was no need for markets to respond to them, and mortgage rates barely moved that day.
The minutes' message closely reflected what Fed Chair Jerome Powell revealed at a news conference immediately after that meeting and reiterated during Congressional testimony last week. Namely, the central bank remains content to pause future cuts to general interest rates until inflation is more obviously under control.
A new glimmer of hope for future mortgage rates seems to be emerging in the financial press. However, it involves major disruption in stock markets, which would be bad news for many.
In his e-newsletter for The Wall Street Journal yesterday, Spencer Jakab was concerned that stock investors are too blindly optimistic. "Like Wile E. Coyote standing on thin air as he chases the Road Runner, markets’ momentum can cause stock prices to defy gravity before they plunge," he wrote.
None of us wants to see stock prices crash, but Jakab isn't alone in worrying that the long bull market we've enjoyed might soon turn bearish. And, if that were to happen, it could push mortgage rates lower.
Why? Well, when investors sell stocks, they tend to move their money into bonds, creating extra demand and increasing prices. However, bond yields move inversely to bond prices, and mortgage rates are largely determined by the yields on a type of bond.
Of course, Jakab and those who share his view might well be proven wrong. Indeed, MarketWatch was speculating yesterday about an imminent fight in Congress over government debt that could have the opposite effect.
Many legislators are shying away from gutting Medicaid and other benefits their constituents rely on. However, if those programs are left alone and promised tax cuts are delivered, that would push up government borrowing, likely forcing bond yields and mortgage rates higher.
So, the future of mortgage rates remains as opaque as ever.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.81% | 6.84% | -0.06% | -0.17% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.93% | 5.99% | -0.04% | -0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.12% | 6.94% | -0.03% | -0.13% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.23% | 6.38% | -0.07% | -0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.22% | 6.36% | +0.03% | -0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.13% | 7.15% | -0.05% | -0.1% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.78% | 6.82% | -0.03% | -0.06% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.91% | 6.94% | -0.04% | -0.13% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.92% | 5.97% | -0.04% | -0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.11% | 6.93% | -0.04% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.28% | 6.43% | -0.07% | +0.01% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.82% | 6.86% | +0.06% | -0.1% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
On Monday, Comerica Bank delivered its weekly summary of what it's expecting this week:
"S&P Global’s February Flash Manufacturing PMI [purchasing managers' index] will probably show the sector’s consolidation in expansionary territory, while the Services PMI is anticipated to show service providers’ rebound from the weather-related slump in January."
Mortgage rates today and tomorrow
This morning's MarketWatch calendar includes leading economic indicators in January and initial claims for unemployment benefits during the week ending Feb. 15. Neither of those typically moves mortgage rates far; usually not at all.
We'll brief you on Friday's reports tomorrow morning.
The Fed is fielding an impressive group of senior officials making public speeches this week. Their intent will likely be to provide context for those FOMC minutes. And investors will be listening out for any hints they drop.
