Mortgage Rates Today, Feb. 19, 2025: Today's Fed Minutes Could Move Mortgage Rates
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.87% today, unchanged since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.98%, the same as one day ago. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.15%, having dropped by 0.01. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.18%, reflecting an increase of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
At 2 p.m. Eastern this afternoon, the Federal Reserve is due to release the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve's rate-setting body, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). And it could turn out to be the most consequential event of the week for mortgage rates.
True, Fed Chair Jerome Powell revealed the Fed's position on general interest rates at a news conference immediately after that meeting and repeated it during Congressional testimony a week ago.
But Wall Street will be eager to learn whether the FOMC discussed the possible inflationary impact of tariffs, according to The Barron's Daily e-newsletter yesterday, and how any such discussions influenced its members' outlook for future rate cuts.
Those wanting lower mortgage rates will hope the committee either dodged the topic or took a neutral view of it.
We saw yesterday how central banks (ours is the Fed) are ultra-sensitive to inflation at the moment. "Australia's central bank cut rates for the first time in more than four years on Tuesday but warned it was too early to declare victory over inflation and was cautious about the prospects of further easing," reported Reuters.
And MarketWatch directly tied yesterday's rise in American mortgage rates to that event in Australia. "The Reserve Bank of Australia's cautious approach toward future rate cuts triggered a modest selloff in U.S. government debt that sent yields
higher for the first time in three sessions," it said. Mortgage rates are largely determined by bond yields.
Another theory, floated by a second Barron's e-newsletter, suggested: "Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at NatAlliance Securities, argued that U.S. Treasury bonds were following moves in Europe. Over there, investors are worried a need to increase defense spending in response to U.S. geopolitical moves may lead to more bond issuance."
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.87% | 6.9% | +0% | -0.1% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.98% | 6.04% | +0% | +0% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.15% | 6.97% | -0.01% | -0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.3% | 6.45% | -0.01% | +0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.19% | 6.33% | +0% | -0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.18% | 7.2% | +0.01% | -0.04% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.81% | 6.85% | +0.03% | -0.03% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.95% | 6.98% | +-0% | -0.08% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.96% | 6.01% | +0.01% | -0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.14% | 6.97% | -0.01% | -0.07% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.35% | 6.5% | +0% | +0.09% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.76% | 6.8% | +0.04% | -0.12% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
On Monday, Comerica Bank delivered its weekly summary of what it's expecting this week:
"Financial markets will scrutinize the January FOMC meeting minutes to gauge how long the Fed will hold rates steady. Chair Powell repeatedly noted that the FOMC was in ‘no hurry’ to cut rates again at the FOMC’s January press conference and stated it again in testimony to Congress last week. Homebuilding likely retreated in January, with starts hit hard by adverse weather. Weather probably weighed less on permit issuance. A sharp decline in pending home sales in December probably translated into lower existing home sales in January. S&P Global’s February Flash Manufacturing PMI [purchasing managers' index] will probably show the sector’s consolidation in expansionary territory, while the Services PMI is anticipated to show service providers’ rebound from the weather-related slump in January."
Mortgage rates today and tomorrow
We're due January reports on housing starts and building permits this morning. But it's this afternoon's FOMC minutes (see above) that are most likely to generate volatility in mortgage rates.
Tomorrow brings leading economic indicators in January and initial claims for unemployment benefits during the week ending Feb. 15. Neither of those typically moves mortgage rates far, usually not at all.
For details of market expectations for all these reports, check out MarketWatch's economic calendar.
The Fed is fielding an impressive group of senior officials making public speeches this week. Their intent will likely be to provide context for those FOMC minutes. And investors will be listening out for any hints they drop.
