Mortgage Rates Today, Feb. 14, 2025: Rates Fell Yesterday but Today's Retail Sales Report Could Affect Them.
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.81% today, a decrease of 0.09% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.89%, down by 0.09%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.09%, having dropped by 0.1. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.11%, reflecting a decrease of 0.09%.
The bigger picture
Sometimes on a Friday, we explain why Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate reports are typically out of date. Its data collection tends to be concentrated in the early days of the week, meaning it misses big movements on Wednesdays.
But, today, Freddie's data are pretty good, though only by chance. True, they didn't capture the full impact of Wednesday's rise. But that was offset by yesterday's similar fall.
So, what happened yesterday? January's producer price index (PPI) came in hotter than markets were expecting but cooler than in December. And that gave investors hope that January's remaining important inflation report, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, would come in cooler than many feared when it's published toward the end of this month. The PCE is the Federal Reserve's favorite gauge of inflation.
Yesterday, we wrote that the PPI was "unlikely to cancel out all of [Wednesday's] increase in mortgage rates." And we stand by that. However, it definitely contributed to Thursday's overall fall, which did cancel that out. The rest may be down to an announcement yesterday that the implementation of some tariffs will be delayed.
Retail sales
January's retail sales report, due this morning, might affect mortgage rates today. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis says:
"Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is the primary measure of consumer spending on goods and services in the U.S. economy. It accounts for about two-thirds of domestic final spending, and thus it is the primary engine that drives future economic growth."
Retail sales are only a part of PCE, so we're not looking at today's figures accounting for two-thirds of GDP. But they do contribute a significant portion of the country's economic growth. So, markets typically pay attention to them.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.81% | 6.85% | -0.09% | -0.3% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.89% | 5.94% | -0.09% | -0.34% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.09% | 6.92% | -0.1% | -0.41% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.23% | 6.38% | -0.04% | -0.28% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.2% | 6.34% | -0.03% | -0.33% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.11% | 7.13% | -0.09% | -0.28% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.78% | 6.82% | -0.13% | -0.18% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.9% | 6.93% | -0.09% | -0.27% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.87% | 5.93% | -0.1% | -0.34% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.08% | 6.91% | -0.1% | -0.41% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.28% | 6.43% | -0.04% | -0.24% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.82% | 6.86% | -0.02% | -0.15% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
On Monday, Comerica Bank delivered its weekly summary of what it's expecting this week:
"Bad weather likely weighed heavily on retail sales and mining in the industrial production report, offset by a jump in utilities output. Industrial production and capacity utilization, overall, are expected to have edged higher in January."
As you can see, Comerica Bank's economics team doesn't always agree with other market commentators.
Mortgage rates today
The most important economic report on today's MarketWatch calendar is retail sales for January. Markets are expecting them to contract by -0.2% that month, having expanded in December by +0.4%.
We're due a couple more reports this morning, both for January, but markets tend to shrug these off. One is the import price index, which is by far the least important of all price indices. It's expected to have risen by 0.3% compared with December's 0.1%.
And the other is industrial production, which is expected to have grown more slowly than in December: by 0.3% compared with the previous month's 0.9%.
The impact of today's reports will depend on how far their actual figures are adrift from market expectations. Lower-than-expected numbers tend to drag mortgage rates lower while higher-than-expected ones often push those rates higher.
Next week
Bond markets will be closed on Monday for the Presidents' Day holiday. We won't be publishing this daily report then because mortgage rates shouldn't move that day.
And there are few significant economic reports scheduled for the rest of the week.
Expect dull days until Friday when a couple of purchasing managers' indices and the consumer sentiment survey are due. Even those rarely move mortgage rates far or for long.
Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean mortgage rates won't change next week. We're currently experiencing packed news cycles, and stories that affect the economy might generate movements.
