Mortgage Rates Today, Feb. 13, 2025: Rates Higher on Bad Inflation News
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.9% today, a decrease of 0.08% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.98%, down by 0.07%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.19%, having dropped by 0.08. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.2%, reflecting a decrease of 0.08%.
The bigger picture
Yesterday's consumer price index (CPI) brought bad news. Inflation was running hotter in January than in December — and hotter than markets were expecting.
Unsurprisingly, mortgage rates rose moderately in response. Mortgage News Daily says they were last night at their highest since Jan. 14. But it also noted that the rise "is actually not as bad as it could have been, all things considered."
Let's hope our luck holds today. Producer price indexes (PPIs) are typically less influential in markets than CPIs.
But, if this morning's PPI shows those prices also increasing more quickly than markets expect, that could pile on the pain. Conversely, a cooler-than-expected PPI might act as a balm, though it is unlikely to cancel out all of yesterday's increase in mortgage rates.
During his testimony before a House committee yesterday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested the CPI report would not change the Fed's position on future rate cuts. “We don’t get excited about one or two bad readings,” he said.
However, MarketWatch reports, "The hotter-than-expected January CPI data will make the Federal Reserve more cautious about inflation risks, with more Fed watchers saying the central bank wouldn’t cut rates at all this year."
So, unless inflation turns around or economic growth slows significantly, we have to accept that mortgage rates might remain stuck around the 7% mark for several months to come.
CBS News reported after the CPI was published: "Mortgage rates ... aren't likely to see relief anytime soon. Despite Fed cuts in 2024, mortgage rates remain near 7%, or close to a 20-year high. Mortgage rates haven't followed the arc of the Fed's rate cuts because they're based on economic data as well as the 10-year Treasury yield. 'Progress on mortgage rates is only expected to occur when inflation is contained,' noted National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun in an email."
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.9% | 6.94% | -0.08% | -0.27% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.98% | 6.04% | -0.07% | -0.28% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.19% | 7.02% | -0.08% | -0.34% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.27% | 6.42% | -0.11% | -0.28% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.24% | 6.37% | -0.11% | -0.31% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.2% | 7.22% | -0.08% | -0.21% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.9% | 6.94% | +0.18% | -0.08% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.99% | 7.02% | -0.07% | -0.25% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.97% | 6.02% | -0.07% | -0.3% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.18% | 7% | -0.08% | -0.33% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.32% | 6.47% | -0.11% | -0.23% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.85% | 6.88% | +0.08% | -0.17% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
On Monday, Comerica Bank delivered its weekly summary of what it's expecting this week:
"Inflation data dominates the economic calendar this week. Inflation as measured by the consumer and producer price indices is expected to have accelerated in January on a sharp increase in energy prices. Core consumer and producer price indices, which exclude volatile energy and food components, probably remained elevated. In separately-compiled consumer surveys, inflation expectations likely tracked gas prices higher.
"Bad weather likely weighed heavily on retail sales and mining in the industrial production report, offset by a jump in utilities output. Industrial production and capacity utilization, overall, are expected to have edged higher in January. The federal government’s budgetary balance likely remained in the red at 2024 year-end."
As you can see, Comerica Bank's economics team doesn't always agree with other market commentators. But it was right about the CPI.
Mortgage rates today
The only significant economic report on today's MarketWatch calendar is the producer price index (PPI) for January. While the CPI measures prices on retailers' shelves and service providers' lists, PPIs look at how prices are changing earlier in the supply chain, for goods, at factory gates and in warehouses.
Price indexes (or indices, if you prefer) have four headline figures. Two gauge price changes over the reporting month (January). And the other two measure year-over-year (YOY) prices (Jan. 1, 2024-Dec. 31, 2024).
Why two of each? Because there are two types of PPI. The first is the general index, which measures all prices in the survey. And the second is the "core" index, which counts the same price changes excluding those for food and energy, which tend to be volatile.
MarketWatch, from whom we source market expectations, doesn't provide year-over-year ones for the PPI.
Here are what markets are expecting from today's headline figures:
- January PPI — 0.3%, up from December's 0.2%
- January core PPI — 0.2%, up from December's 0.1%
With inflation data, lower-than-expected figures are almost always good for mortgage rates, pulling them downward. Higher-than-expected numbers can push those rates up. And as-forecast figures often have little impact.
For the record, we're also this morning due weekly figures for new applications for unemployment benefits for the week ending Feb. 8. But these reports tend to influence mortgage rates only when the labor market is front of mind for investors. Usually, weekly data are regarded as too "noisy" (susceptible to one-time freakish events) to be of interest.
Tomorrow
Retail sales for January are due Friday. These are usually less powerful than CPIs but more so than PPIs.
But, of course, the impact of tomorrow's report will depend on how far its actual figures are adrift from market expectations. Those are currently for a contraction of -0.2%, lower than December's +0.4%. So, a number below -0.2% might be helpful for mortgage rates.
