Mortgage Rates Today, Feb. 12, 2025: Will Today's Consumer Price Index Cause Waves?
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.98% today, an increase of 0.08% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 6.06%, up by 0.08%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.27%, having risen by 0.13. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.27%, reflecting an increase of 0.11%.
The bigger picture
Today's consumer price index (CPI) is the economic report this week with the most potential to affect markets and mortgage rates. But it's likely to change things only if it's appreciably better or worse than Wall Street is expecting. See market expectations, below, and stand by for the report itself at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.Yesterday afternoon, MarketWatch reported: "Investors and traders were bracing for Wednesday’s consumer-price index report for January to mostly reflect either little change from or a slight improvement over the final month of 2024. Yet one part of the financial market continued to flash worrisome signs about future price gains."
That red flag was the five-year breakeven inflation rate, which gauges expected inflation rates over the medium term. And the article suggested, "The message it is currently sending is that inflation could remain above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for years."
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell wasn't talking in years when he gave testimony yesterday before the Senate banking committee. But he did suggest that the Fed was unlikely to be looking at further cuts to general interest rates anytime soon.
Here's PBS's take on his Capitol Hill session: "The Federal Reserve is prepared to keep its key interest rate unchanged for now as inflation remains elevated and the job market is solid, Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday on the first of a two-day appearance before Congress."
As PBS suggested, Powell will be back on Capitol Hill this morning, this time testifying before a House committee.
Neither stubbornly warm inflation nor stagnant general interest rates are good for mortgage rates. Just remember, such things can turn around with stunning speed. The question is: Will they?
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.98% | 7.02% | +0.08% | -0.17% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 6.06% | 6.12% | +0.08% | -0.18% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.27% | 7.09% | +0.13% | -0.17% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.38% | 6.53% | +0.12% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.34% | 6.49% | +0.13% | -0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.27% | 7.29% | +0.11% | -0.12% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.73% | 6.77% | -0.05% | -0.25% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 7.06% | 7.09% | +0.08% | -0.17% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 6.04% | 6.1% | +0.08% | -0.18% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.26% | 7.08% | +0.15% | -0.16% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.43% | 6.58% | +0.12% | -0.07% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.76% | 6.8% | -0.06% | -0.25% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
On Monday, Comerica Bank delivered its weekly summary of what it's expecting this week:
"Inflation data dominates the economic calendar this week. Inflation as measured by the consumer and producer price indices is expected to have accelerated in January on a sharp increase in energy prices. Core consumer and producer price indices, which exclude volatile energy and food components, probably remained elevated. In separately-compiled consumer surveys, inflation expectations likely tracked gas prices higher.
"Bad weather likely weighed heavily on retail sales and mining in the industrial production report, offset by a jump in utilities output. Industrial production and capacity utilization, overall, are expected to have edged higher in January. The federal government’s budgetary balance likely remained in the red at 2024 year-end."
As you can see, Comerica Bank's economics team doesn't always agree with other market commentators.
Mortgage rates today
The only economic report on today's MarketWatch calendar is the consumer price index (CPI) for January.
Price indexes (or indices, if you prefer) have four headline figures. Two gauge price changes over the reporting month (January). And the other two measure year-over-year (YOY) prices (Jan. 1, 2024-Dec. 31, 2024).
Why two of each? Because there are two types of CPI. The first is the general index, which measures all prices in the survey. And the second is the "core" index, which counts the same price changes excluding food and energy ones.
Here are what markets are expecting from today's four headline figures:
- January CPI — 0.3%, down from December's 0.4%
- YOY CPI — 2.8%, down from December's 2.9%
- January core CPI — 0.3%, unchanged from December
- YOY core CPI — 3.1%, down from December's 3.2%
With inflation data, lower-than-expected figures are almost always good for mortgage rates, pulling them lower. Higher-than-expected numbers can push those rates higher. And as-forecast figures often have little impact.
Tomorrow should bring the producer price index (PPI) for January. PPIs can certainly affect mortgage rates but typically to a much smaller extent than CPIs.
Finally, retail sales for January are due Friday. These are usually less powerful than CPIs but more so than PPIs.
Three of Powell's colleagues at the Fed have speaking engagements today. And Wall Street will be listening out for hints of any change in the prospects for future rate movements.
