Mortgage Rates Today, Feb. 11, 2025: Fed Back in Spotlight
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.91% today, an increase of 0.06% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.98%, up by 0.06%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.14%, having risen by 0.04. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.17%, reflecting an increase of 0.08%.
The bigger picture
Yesterday, we explored how deteriorating confidence among consumers and investors just might offer a glimmer of hope for those wanting lower mortgage rates. Today, we must examine a potential cause of those rates moving upward.
This morning, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is due to deliver to the Senate banking committee the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress. And he'll be back on Capitol Hill the following morning to testify before a House committee.
Powell is likely to repeat the remarks he made at a news conference he hosted on Jan. 29. His message then was that the Fed would respond to economic data when deciding future movements in general interest rates but was in no hurry to make further cuts.
However, legislators are likely to try to extract more information from Powell, especially over the timing of any such cuts. The independence of the Fed is also an area of controversy at the moment that they may wish to address.
Powell has a deservedly high reputation for saying what he wants to say and nothing more. That's partly why markets set great store on his words. And why any change in his messaging from nearly two weeks ago could generate significant movements in markets and mortgage rates.
Of course, knowing Powell's reputation, we're not expecting any messaging changes or slips of his tongue. However, they're a possibility of which you should be aware.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.91% | 6.95% | +0.06% | -0.19% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.98% | 6.03% | +0.06% | -0.17% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.14% | 6.96% | +0.04% | -0.26% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.26% | 6.41% | +0.02% | -0.2% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.22% | 6.35% | +-0% | -0.27% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.17% | 7.19% | +0.08% | -0.19% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.78% | 6.82% | +0.03% | -0.2% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.99% | 7.02% | +0.05% | -0.18% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.95% | 6.01% | +0.06% | -0.18% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.12% | 6.95% | +0.05% | -0.25% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.3% | 6.45% | +0.02% | -0.14% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.82% | 6.86% | +0.03% | -0.19% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
On Monday, Comerica Bank delivered its weekly summary of what it's expecting this week:
"Inflation data dominates the economic calendar this week. Inflation as measured by the consumer and producer price indices is expected to have accelerated in January on a sharp increase in energy prices. Core consumer and producer price indices, which exclude volatile energy and food components, probably remained elevated. In separately-compiled consumer surveys, inflation expectations likely tracked gas prices higher.
"Bad weather likely weighed heavily on retail sales and mining in the industrial production report, offset by a jump in utilities output. Industrial production and capacity utilization, overall, are expected to have edged higher in January. The federal government’s budgetary balance likely remained in the red at 2024 year-end. Small business optimism likely took a breather following two consecutive months of sharp increases."
Mortgage rates today
Today's MarketWatch calendar features only the National Federation of Independent Business's (NFIB) optimism survey. Although it will be interesting to see if small businesses share consumers' and individual investors' pessimism, NFIB reports rarely affect mortgage rates much.
January's consumer price index (CPI) is scheduled for tomorrow. And retail sales for the same month are due Friday. Both those are more than capable of moving markets and mortgage rates if they bring unexpectedly good or bad news. So, we'll brief you further on each before they're published.
Many of Powell's colleagues at the Fed have speaking engagements on the same days he's giving testimony. Again, Wall Street will be listening out for hints of any change in the prospects for future rate movements.
