Mortgage Rates Today, Feb. 10, 2025: Hope for Lower Rates?
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.85% today, a decrease of 0.02% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.91%, down by 0.02%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.1%, having dropped by 0.03. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.1%, reflecting a decrease of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
Last Friday's jobs report was a mixed bag containing good and bad news about the labor market. But another economic report that day might have delivered a little hope for lower mortgage rates.
The University of Michigan's surveys of consumer sentiment showed Americans worried about how the economy will perform in the future. And that's important because consumer activity (personal consumption expenditures) "represent nearly 68% of the nation’s GDP," according to U.S. Bank.
When consumers are concerned about their and the country's economic prospects, they tend to reduce their discretionary spending, slowing the economy.
"Consumer sentiment fell for the second straight month, dropping about 5% to reach its lowest reading since July 2024," said the university's report accompanying the data. " ... Furthermore, all five index components deteriorated this month, led by a 12% slide in buying conditions for durables ... Expectations for personal finances sank about 6% from last month, again seen across all political affiliations, reaching its
lowest value since October 2023. Many consumers appear worried that high inflation will return within the next year."
For mortgage rates, that last point is a fly in the ointment. "Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped up from 3.3% last month to 4.3%
this month, the highest reading since November 2023 and marking two consecutive months of unusually large increases," said the report.
Yes, mortgage rates tend to fall when the economy is slowing. But they're pretty much guaranteed to rise when inflation is running hot.
It's not just consumers who are worried about our economic future. Last Thursday, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) published its weekly investor sentiment report. And it found, "Pessimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks increased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, optimism and neutral sentiment decreased."
In markets, "bears" take a pessimistic view of future stock prices while "bulls" are optimists. The report says, "Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 8.8 percentage points to 42.9%. Bearish sentiment is unusually high and is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 10th time in 12 weeks." Bullish sentiment stood at 33.3%, down 7.6 points from a week earlier.
Clearly, these are only two snapshot reports, and consumer and investor sentiments are notoriously fickle. But, with the most popular mortgage rates hanging around on either side of the 7% mark, we're keen to highlight any glimmer of hope.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.85% | 6.88% | -0.02% | -0.25% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.91% | 5.97% | -0.02% | -0.23% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.1% | 6.92% | -0.03% | -0.3% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.24% | 6.39% | -0.03% | -0.22% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.22% | 6.36% | +0% | -0.26% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.1% | 7.12% | -0.01% | -0.26% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.75% | 6.79% | +0.06% | -0.23% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.94% | 6.97% | -0.01% | -0.23% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.9% | 5.95% | -0.02% | -0.24% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.08% | 6.91% | -0.03% | -0.28% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.28% | 6.43% | -0.03% | -0.17% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.8% | 6.83% | +0.06% | -0.22% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
Mortgage rates next week
No economic reports are due today. And, tomorrow's MarketWatch calendar features only the National Federation of Independent Business's (NFIB) optimism survey. Although it will be interesting to see if small businesses share consumers' and individual investors' pessimism, NFIB reports rarely affect mortgage rates much.
After that, things warm up. January's consumer price index (CPI) is scheduled for Wednesday. And retail sales for the same month are due Friday. Both those are more than capable of moving markets and mortgage rates if they bring unexpectedly good or bad news.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is testifying before Senate and House committees on Capitol Hill tomorrow and Wednesday. Markets hang on Powell's every word when he speaks in public, seeing him as the voice of the Fed. In particular, they want to know his take on the likelihood of future cuts (or hikes!) to general interest rates.
Many of Powell's colleagues at the Fed have speaking engagements on the same days he's giving testimony. Again, Wall Street will be listening out for hints of any change in the prospects for future rate movements.
