Mortgage Rates Today, Feb. 7, 2025: Today's Jobs Report Was Likely Unhelpful for Rates
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.87% today, an increase of 0.04% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.93%, up by 0.02%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.13%, having risen by 0.01. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.11%, reflecting an increase of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
Jobs reports are typically the most consequential of all economic data for mortgage rates. And today's, which covered January, likely brought bad news.
Here are this morning's official figures (in bold) alongside market expectations sourced from MarketWatch:
- Nonfarm payrolls (number of new jobs created that month) — 143,000. Markets were expecting 169,000, down from December's 256,000
- Unemployment rate — 4.0%. Markets were expecting 4.1%, unchanged since December
- Average hourly earnings — 0.5%. Markets were expecting 0.3%, unchanged since December
You can see that the top figure showed a smaller increase in jobs than had been expected. And that would normally be good for mortgage rates.
However, both the other figures implied unexpected strength in the labor market. And, with many investors concerned about the continuing effects of "sticky" (persistent) inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% p.a. target, the growth in hourly earnings may be especially influential.
Investors usually trade ahead of reports based on market expectations, aka "analysts' consensus forecasts." So, it's the gap between an actual figure and the corresponding forecast that tends to drive changes in mortgage rates. The more the figure suggests the economy is stronger than expected, the higher mortgage rates tend to go. Weaker-than-expected figures often drive mortgage rates downward.
An added complication this month
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which generates jobs reports (aka employment situation reports) uses various surveys to calculate its monthly publication. And there are tensions between those surveys' data.
So, annually, the BLS attempts a reconciliation to refine its numbers. And that sometimes involves quite major revisions.
Today was when the 2023-24 revisions were due. And they are reflected in this morning's data.
With so much of considerable importance happening today, we'll just have to wait to see how markets respond. But, if we must make a guess, we'd say it could be a moderately difficult day for mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.87% | 6.91% | +0.04% | -0.17% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.93% | 5.99% | +0.02% | -0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.13% | 6.95% | +0.01% | -0.19% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.27% | 6.42% | +0.04% | -0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.22% | 6.36% | +-0% | -0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.11% | 7.13% | +0.01% | -0.17% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.69% | 6.73% | -0.32% | -0.27% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.95% | 6.98% | +0.01% | -0.16% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.91% | 5.97% | +0.02% | -0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.11% | 6.94% | +0.01% | -0.19% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.31% | 6.46% | +0.06% | -0.04% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.73% | 6.77% | -0.08% | -0.24% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
Mortgage rates next week
No economic reports are due on Monday. But we're due a couple of big ones later in the week.
January's consumer price index (CPI) is scheduled for Wednesday. And retail sales for the same month are due Friday.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is testifying before Senate and House committees on Capitol Hill on Tuesday and Wednesday. Markets hang on Powell's every word when he speaks in public, seeing him as the voice of the Fed. In particular, they want to know his take on the likelihood of future cuts (or hikes!) to general interest rates.
