Mortgage Rates Today, Feb. 6, 2025: Movement at Last — And in the Right Direction
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.83% today, a decrease of 0.03% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.91%, up by 0.04%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.11%, having dropped by 0.01. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.1%, reflecting a decrease of 0.04%.
The bigger picture
It was inevitable that on the day we highlighted weeks of barely changing mortgage rates they finally moved. The good news was that they fell moderately.
Mortgage rates often move in line with yields on 10-year Treasury notes. And that was the case yesterday.
MarketWatch explained what happened: "Treasury yields retreated sharply on Wednesday, with 2-, 10- and 30-year issues falling to their lowest since December after the Treasury Department alleviated fears of a near-term jump in supply and data on the U.S. services sector came in below expectations. Yields, which move opposite to price, were dragged down ahead of the U.S. session on flight-to-safety trades triggered by concerns about further Middle East instability ... "
Let's not get too carried away. The fall was only moderate and over a single day. So, it's much too soon to see this as heralding further falls. Still, continuing falls in mortgage rates are roughly as likely as rises.Much depends on tomorrow's jobs report. If that shows more weakness in the labor market than markets expect, it could set a new downward trend. Conversely, continuing strength in employment could wipe out today's gains and kill any chance of further falls for days or even weeks.
As you'd expect, how sharply markets respond to any report depends on the size of the gap between expectations and actual figures. So, it's perfectly possible that the jobs report will come in on forecast and have little or no effect on markets and mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.83% | 6.86% | -0.03% | -0.22% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.91% | 5.96% | +0.04% | -0.18% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.11% | 6.94% | -0.01% | -0.19% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.23% | 6.38% | +0.01% | -0.13% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.22% | 6.36% | +-0% | -0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.1% | 7.12% | -0.04% | -0.17% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 7.01% | 7.07% | +0.08% | +0.06% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.93% | 6.96% | -0.01% | -0.19% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.89% | 5.94% | +0.04% | -0.18% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.09% | 6.92% | -0.01% | -0.2% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.25% | 6.4% | +0.02% | -0.1% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.82% | 6.85% | +0.05% | -0.16% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
On Monday, Comerica Bank's economics team gave a swift run-through of what we might expect this week:
"Adverse weather likely impacted the labor market last month, resulting in below trend growth in hiring and hours worked. Weather’s negative effect will probably show up in the ISM Services PMI [purchasing managers' index] as well, as service providers are more affected by inclement weather than manufacturers. On the back of strong post-election business optimism, employers are anticipated to have increased job postings. The very sharp deterioration in the goods trade balance in December will probably lead to a considerable widening of the overall trade deficit as well. Consumer spending rose very sharply in December, likely fueled in part by credit. Hence, consumer credit is anticipated to have risen sharply in the final month of the year. Soaring housing starts in December likely translated into a solid increase in construction spending."
Mortgage rates today
We're due only two economic reports today, and they rarely move mortgage rates far or for long. They are:
- Initial jobless claims during the week ending Feb. 1 — Markets are expecting 214,000 claims, up from the previous week's 207,000
- Fourth quarter '24 productivity — 1.4% expected, down from 2.2% during the third quarter of 2024
Market expectations are sourced from MarketWatch. Typically, mortgage rates tend to move higher on better-than-expected numbers and to fall on worse. When actual figures match expectations, reports rarely bring a perceptible change.
Tomorrow's jobs report
Jobs reports (formally called employment situation reports) are often highly consequential for mortgage rates. They contain three headline figures, which tend to be the ones that trigger responses in markets. However, they also bring a wealth of other data, and sometimes those change the initial reaction once investors have fully digested the numbers.
MarketWatch says markets are expecting the following headline figures for tomorrow's report, which covers January:
- Nonfarm payrolls (number of new jobs created that month) — 169,000, down from December's 256,000
- Unemployment rate — 4.1%, unchanged since December
- Average hourly earnings — 0.3%, unchanged since December
We'll publish this daily article later than usual tomorrow so we can bring you the actual numbers and suggest what they might mean for mortgage rates.
One or more senior Federal Reserve officials will be speaking in public every day this week. As always, investors will be listening for clues about any changes in attitudes within the Fed to future cuts to general interest rates.
