Mortgage Rates Today, Feb. 4, 2025: Rollercoasting Markets Leave Mortgage Rates Untouched
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.92% today, an increase of 0.03% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.92%, up by 0.02%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.17%, having risen by 0.02. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.17%, reflecting an increase of 0.03%.
The bigger picture
Markets yesterday were roiled by fast developments in America's relationships with some of its key trading partners. However, by the end of the day, many were in similar positions to those they started at.
The Wall Street Journal talked of " ... a sharp overnight drop in global stocks and futures that continued in early trading Monday. But by midday, many of the trades had reversed ... "
The good news was that mortgage rates barely budged. That was a win because all yesterday's economic reports showed the economy stronger than markets had expected. Although these reports weren't the sort to have lasting consequences, a small rise in those rates might normally have been on the cards.
We might have avoided that because mortgage rates benefited a little from weaknesses in the stock market. When stock investors get spooked, they tend to sell. And the money they release often ends up in safer investments, mostly bonds.
Mortgage rates are largely determined by the yields on a type of bond, the mortgage-backed security (MBS). As with most things, an increase in demand pushes up the price of MBSs. And, with all types of bonds, it's a mathematical inevitability that yields fall when prices rise.
This is a period of considerable upheaval. Yes, we might get a breather following yesterday's market dramas. But there's no guarantee of that.
If the calm continues, the next significant movement in mortgage rates might arise on Friday. That's when December's jobs report is published.
Other economic reports due before Friday might generate some movements, but the jobs report is the one with the greatest potential to have a considerable and continuing impact.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.92% | 6.95% | +0.03% | -0.05% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.92% | 5.98% | +0.02% | -0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.17% | 7% | +0.02% | -0.14% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.29% | 6.44% | +0.08% | -0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.18% | 6.32% | +0.08% | -0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.17% | 7.19% | +0.03% | -0.18% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 7.03% | 7.09% | +-0% | +0.2% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 7.01% | 7.05% | +0.04% | -0.03% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.91% | 5.96% | +0.02% | -0.1% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.15% | 6.98% | +0.02% | -0.14% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.3% | 6.45% | +0.09% | -0.03% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.83% | 6.86% | +0.03% | -0.06% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
On Monday, Comerica Bank's economics team gave a swift run-through of what we might expect this week:
"Adverse weather likely impacted the labor market last month, resulting in below trend growth in hiring and hours worked. Weather’s negative effect will probably show up in the ISM Services PMI [purchasing managers' index] as well, as service providers are more affected by inclement weather than manufacturers. On the back of strong post-election business optimism, employers are anticipated to have increased job postings. The very sharp deterioration in the goods trade balance in December will probably lead to a considerable widening of the overall trade deficit as well. Consumer spending rose very sharply in December, likely fueled in part by credit. Hence, consumer credit is anticipated to have risen sharply in the final month of the year. Soaring housing starts in December likely translated into a solid increase in construction spending."
Mortgage rates today
There are two economic reports due this morning. The first is the December job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS). And it's expected to show a tiny drop in the number of job openings: to 8.0 million, compared with November's 8.1 million.
The second report covers factory orders, also in December. That's expected to show orders falling by -0.8%, worse than November's -0.4% contraction.
Market expectations are sourced from MarketWatch. Typically, mortgage rates tend to move higher on better-than-expected numbers and to fall on worse. When actual figures match expectations, reports rarely bring a perceptible change.
One or more senior Federal Reserve officials will be speaking in public every day this week. As always, investors will be listening for clues about any changes in attitudes within the Fed to future cuts to general interest rates.
