Mortgage Rates Today, Dec. 20, 2024: Important Inflation Data Due Today. But Will It Matter?
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.96% today, a decrease of 0.09% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 6.04%, down by 0.01%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.2%, having dropped by 0.11. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.38%, reflecting a decrease of 0.04%.
In brief
Markets appeared to be punch drunk yesterday following a heavy blow from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. Most of the economic data that morning came in hotter than expected, which would usually push mortgage rates higher.
However, those rates barely moved in response. You can see why investors will likely take a minute to absorb the whole new landscape painted by the Fed.
That's especially true while they're dealing with another distraction. AP reports:
"Congress has until midnight Friday [today] to come up with a way to fund the government or federal agencies will shut down, meaning hundreds of thousands of federal employees could be sent home — or stay on the job without pay — just ahead of the holidays.
"Republicans abandoned a bipartisan plan Wednesday to prevent a shutdown after President-elect Donald Trump and billionaire Elon Musk came out against it. Trump told House Speaker Mike Johnson to essentially renegotiate the deal days before a deadline when federal funding runs out."
Republicans have now formulated a slimmed-down bill that Trump has endorsed and that suspends the debt ceiling for two years. But it failed a vote in the House yesterday evening with 38 Republican representatives saying, Nay.
That was no surprise. The Wall Street Journal said earlier in the day, "All day, the leaders of different Republican factions filed into embattled House Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R., La.) office, only to emerge hours later unable or unwilling to answer questions about what’s next."
Even if some form of the bill does eventually pass the House, how will it do in the Senate where Democrats are in the majority?
A shutdown might not be bad for mortgage rates at least in the short term because it would deliver a blow to the economy. But at what cost?
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.96% | 7% | -0.09% | +0.03% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 6.04% | 6.11% | -0.01% | +0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.2% | 7.03% | -0.11% | -0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.26% | 6.42% | -0.08% | -0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.12% | 6.26% | -0.13% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.38% | 7.41% | -0.04% | +-0% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.83% | 6.86% | -0.02% | +0.15% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 7.02% | 7.05% | -0.12% | +0.09% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 6.03% | 6.1% | -0.01% | +0.19% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.18% | 7.02% | -0.11% | -0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.26% | 6.41% | -0.08% | -0.03% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.84% | 6.88% | -0.04% | +0.1% |
Coming up
Mortgage rates today
So, this morning's question is whether or not markets will pay attention to today's economic data, the more important of which is November's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. There are too many variables for us even to venture an opinion.
These price indexes come with four main components. Two cover the reporting month (November) and the other two are year-over-year figures (Dec. 1, 2023 - Nov. 30, 2024).
Each of these periods comes in two flavors. The first is the straight index, which measures all prices in the survey. And the second is the "core" index, which is the straight index after food and energy prices have been stripped out. Economists argue that those two categories are "noisy" (volatile) and excluding them reveals the underlying trend.
Here's what markets are expecting for those four components:
→ November PCE index — 0.2%, unchanged since October
→ YOY PCE index — 2.5%, up from October's 2.3%
→ November core PCE index — 0.2%, down from October's 0.3%
→ YOY core PCE index — 2.9%, up from October's 2.8%
We'd like to see as many lower-than-expected figures as possible to stand a decent chance of mortgage rates falling.
This morning's other report is the final reading of consumer sentiment in December. It's expected to come in at 74.0, unchanged from the last reading. Again, a figure below 74 might help mortgage rates to fall — assuming investors are paying any attention.
Next week
The holiday week has few reports that typically move mortgage rates. And none that usually moves them far.
