Mortgage Rates Today, Dec. 18, 2024: It's Fed Day! And This Time It's a Big One
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.84% today, a decrease of 0.02% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.85%, down by 0.08%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.08%, having dropped by 0.01. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.22%, reflecting a decrease of 0.04%.
Update: The Fed cut rates by 0.25% but mortgage rates increased dramatically. For updated analysis after the Fed's release, click here.
In brief
Stand by for fireworks with two shows due this afternoon. The first, scheduled for 2 p.m. Eastern, takes the form of document releases by the Federal Reserve.
One document will announce whether the Fed is cutting general interest rates today. Nearly everyone thinks it will implement a quarter-point (25-basis-point) cut. And that means such a cut is already priced in. Markets and mortgage rates are unlikely to move unless the Fed announces something unexpected.
The second two-o'clock document is a quarterly summary of economic projections. And that will include a graph (the "dot plot") that shows where members of the Fed's rate-setting committee expect general interest rates to move between now and 2027.
Investors around the world will fall on the dot plot like a pack of starving hyenas on an unlucky antelope. And the projections could easily affect mortgage rates significantly.
Thirty minutes after the documents land, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will host a news conference. And his words could dampen down or fuel market reactions sparked by the projections.
Yesterday, Barron's spoke of " ... a realization on Wall Street the Fed ultimately won’t be able to cut rates as deeply as investors once hoped —curtailing generous bond market returns in 2025."
Meanwhile, in his DealBook e-newsletter for The New York Times, Andrew Ross Sorkin yesterday echoed that when he wrote, " ... investors worry that stubbornly high inflation and volatility from a potential trade war orchestrated by President-elect Donald Trump could force the Fed to go easier on rate-cutting next year."
If the fears of Barron's and the Times materialize this afternoon, that could send mortgage rates much higher. How much higher will depend on how hawkish the Fed chooses to be.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.84% | 6.88% | -0.02% | -0.14% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.85% | 5.91% | -0.08% | -0.23% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.08% | 6.92% | -0.01% | -0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.15% | 6.31% | +0.01% | -0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.23% | 6.38% | +0.17% | +0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.22% | 7.24% | -0.04% | -0.17% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.73% | 6.76% | -0.04% | -0.04% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.92% | 6.96% | -0.04% | -0.03% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.84% | 5.9% | -0.09% | -0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.07% | 6.91% | -0.01% | -0.14% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.17% | 6.32% | +0.02% | -0.13% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.76% | 6.8% | +0% | -0.06% |
Coming up
Mortgage rates today
All eyes will be on the Fed today. And we shouldn't be surprised if this morning's housing starts and building permits in November go largely unnoticed.
Tomorrow and Friday
Tomorrow morning, we're due the final revision of gross domestic product (GDP) data for the third quarter. And markets are expecting the new reading to be slightly higher than the last one: 2.9% growth compared to 2.8%.
That should be fine if it comes about because markets are expecting it and have priced it in. However, a higher-than-expected figure could push mortgage rates upward while a lower-than-expected one could drag them downward.
Tomorrow's other economic reports rarely trouble mortgage rates. And probably nothing on Thursday's calendar will have much effect unless markets are done responding to today's Fed events.
Friday brings the Fed's favorite gauge of inflation. And we'll brief you more fully on that tomorrow.
