Mortgage Rates Today, Dec. 17, 2024: Retail Sales Data Might Move Mortgage Rates. But Probably Briefly
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.86% today, an increase of 0.03% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.93%, up by 0.08%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.09%, having risen by 0.01. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.26%, reflecting an increase of 0.05%.
In brief
Most retail sales reports have the potential to move mortgage rates. And today's, which covers November, may well, too.
But tomorrow's Federal Reserve events might easily swamp any changes brought about by today's economic reports. So, don't expect any good or bad news this morning to necessarily last more than a day.
The CME FedWatch tool puts the chances of a quarter-point (25-basis-point) cut to general interest rates tomorrow at 98.2%. So, markets are expecting such a cut and will likely react only if it isn't delivered. In other words, it's already baked into stocks and bond yields — and therefore mortgage rates.
Barron's explained yesterday what could affect markets and mortgage rates: "Even if a quarter-point cut does come gift-wrapped as expected for the market, Fed Chair Jerome Powell could still be the Grinch who stole Christmas when he speaks after the decision ... With a single raise of an eyebrow or a turn of phrase, Powell could signal a Santa rally or even a Santa slump."
That article was referring to Powell's news conference, due at 2:30 p.m. Eastern tomorrow. But there's another event 30 minutes earlier that could just as easily make or break Christmas for investors.
That's the publication of the Fed's summary of economic projections, which includes the famous "dot plot." This shows in graphic form where each member of the central bank's rate-setting body (the Federal Open Market Committee or FOMC) expects general interest rates to move in the coming months and years.
"One option this week would be to cut by a quarter point, then use new economic projections to strongly hint that the central bank is ready to
go more slowly on the reductions," suggested The Wall Street Journal yesterday.
We fear that's the most likely scenario for tomorrow. And it would likely be unhelpful for mortgage rates. Just how unhelpful would depend on how hard the Fed suggests it might tread on the rate-cutting brake.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.86% | 6.9% | +0.03% | -0.11% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.93% | 5.99% | +0.08% | -0.1% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.09% | 6.93% | +0.01% | -0.1% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.14% | 6.29% | +-0% | -0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.06% | 6.2% | -0.01% | -0.13% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.26% | 7.28% | +0.05% | -0.11% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.76% | 6.8% | +0.03% | -0.01% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.96% | 7% | +0.06% | +0.02% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.94% | 5.99% | +0.08% | +0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.09% | 6.92% | +0.02% | -0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.15% | 6.3% | +0% | -0.03% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.76% | 6.8% | +0.04% | -0.04% |
Coming up
Mortgage rates today
Today's two biggest reports cover retail sales and industrial production during November. And they're both expected to improve.
That's normally bad news for mortgage rates, which tend to fall on bad economic news and rise on bad. But markets have been expecting today's good news for a while and have already priced it in.
So, if this morning's figures are as forecast, mortgage rates will probably barely move. But, if the data are better than expected, those rates might rise. And if they're worse than expected they might fall.
Markets are expecting retail sales to grow by 0.5%, up from 0.4% in October, according to MarketWatch. And they expect industrial production to have increased by 0.3%, having shrunk by -0.3% in October.
This morning's other report, the home builder confidence index, rarely moves mortgage rates. It's expected to improve to 47 in December, compared with 46 in November.
To repeat our earlier warning: Mortgage rates may well move in response to this morning's data. But we shouldn't be surprised if investors' reactions are totally swamped by tomorrow's Fed events.
Tomorrow
We're due November housing starts and building permits tomorrow morning. But, perhaps surprisingly, real-estate-related figures rarely affect mortgage rates much.
And markets are likely to be wholly fixated on the Fed tomorrow. So we'll be surprised if that morning's economic reports have any perceptible effect.
