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Mortgage Rates Today, Dec. 16, 2024: It's Fed Week!

Federal Reserve 1: mortgage rates today

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.84% today, an increase of 0.01% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.85%, up by 0.01%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.08%, having stayed the same. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.21%, reflecting an increase of 0.02%.

In brief

The Federal Reserve is almost bound to cut general interest rates on Wednesday. But that's already priced into markets (and mortgage rates) and is unlikely to have much effect unless the Fed changes course and holds rates steady that day.

What could have a big impact on that day are two other events. First, at 2 p.m. (ET), the Fed's rate-setting body will publish its projections for where general interest rates will probably move over the coming months and years.

And, secondly, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will host a news conference at 2:30 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday. And his words could easily affect mortgage rates significantly.

Yesterday, The Financial Times reported, "The Federal Reserve is set to take a more cautious approach to interest rate cuts on fears that the Trump administration’s policies will stoke higher inflation, according to academic economists polled by the Financial Times."

Previously, Powell has said it's too soon to assess the likely outcome of President-elect Donald Trump's policies on inflation and the wider economy. But, if the FT turns out to be correct, mortgage rates could rise sharply on Wednesday afternoon — and keep going up for some time to come.

Nobody can be sure about any of this stuff. True, a small rate cut on Wednesday looks highly likely, with the CME FedWatch tool putting the likelihood at 96% over the weekend. But, until 2 p.m. on Wednesday, nothing is certain.


Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days

Purchase Rates

Loan Type Rate APR Daily Change Monthly Change
30-Year Fixed 6.84% 6.87% +0.01% -0.14%
15-Year Fixed 5.85% 5.91% +0.01% -0.18%
30-Year Fixed FHA 6.08% 6.91% +-0% -0.11%
30-Year Fixed VA 6.14% 6.3% -0.01% -0.03%
30-Year Fixed USDA 6.08% 6.22% +0% -0.12%
30-Year Fixed Jumbo 7.21% 7.23% +0.02% -0.15%
5/6 Year ARM 6.73% 6.77% +0.06% -0.04%

Refinance Rates

Loan Type Rate APR Daily Change Monthly Change
30-Year Fixed 6.9% 6.94% +0.01% -0.05%
15-Year Fixed 5.85% 5.91% +0.01% +0%
30-Year Fixed FHA 6.07% 6.9% +-0% -0.11%
30-Year Fixed VA 6.15% 6.3% -0.01% -0.03%
5/6 Year ARM 6.72% 6.76% +0.08% -0.08%
How we source rates and rate trends.

Coming up

Mortgage rates today

Before Wednesday's Fed events, we're due some economic reports. But, with all eyes focused on the central bank, they may have less impact than they usually might.

Today brings a couple of purchasing managers' indexes (PMIs) from S&P Global. One covers the services sector and the other manufacturing.

PMIs can affect mortgage rates because they measure activity in organizations' purchasing departments. And that can be a good gauge of future economic activity.

But we doubt that today's will move mortgage rates far.

Tomorrow

Tomorrow brings two reports. The first contains retail sales data for November and the second measures industrial production in the same month.

Retail sales can be especially consequential for mortgage rates. And they're expected to improve to 0.6% from 0.4% in October. Anything above 0.6% could push mortgage rates higher and anything below could drag them lower.

But we suspect that any change tomorrow will be temporary and will be swamped by Wednesday's Fed events.



About The Author:

Peter Warden has been covering mortgage, real estate, and personal finance for 15 years. He has appeared on The Mortgage Reports, Credit Sesame, Bills.com, and other publications.

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