Mortgage Rates Today, Dec. 13, 2024: Is Next Week's Fed Rate Cut "Nailed On?"
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.83% today, an increase of 0.03% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.83%, up by 0.08%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.08%, having risen by 0.22. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.19%, reflecting an increase of 0.17%.
In brief
Yesterday morning, before Thursday's overheated (in parts) producer price index (PPI), Barron's was suggesting that a Federal Reserve cut to general interest rates on Dec. 18 was "nailed on."
Did the PPI change that view? Probably not.
The CME FedWatch tool reveals investors betting 94.7% on such a cut yesterday afternoon. On Wednesday, the same figure was 97.5%.
That's a barely perceptible change. And mortgage rates, too, barely moved on the PPI news although they rose later in the day for no obvious reason.
Today's import price index (IPI) is usually even weaker than the PPI. So, we doubt mortgage rates will move far over the coming hours. Unless, that is, some other event unexpectedly intervenes or the downbeat mood continues.
Next week will likely be dominated by the Fed's rate decision that Wednesday. However, other reports are due during the week, including November retail sales and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index.
Luckily, that price index isn't due until after the Fed announces its decision. So, it can't change much.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.83% | 6.87% | +0.03% | -0.07% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.83% | 5.89% | +0.08% | -0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.08% | 6.92% | +0.22% | -0.07% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.15% | 6.3% | +0.25% | -0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.08% | 6.22% | +0.31% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.19% | 7.21% | +0.17% | -0.17% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.67% | 6.71% | +0.09% | -0.1% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.89% | 6.93% | +0.03% | +0% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.84% | 5.9% | +0.08% | +0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.07% | 6.9% | +0.2% | -0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.16% | 6.31% | +0.25% | -0.05% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.64% | 6.67% | +-0% | -0.16% |
Yesterday
Yesterday's producer price index (PPI) was a mixed bag, with nice and nasty surprises.
Here are the report's actual figures alongside market expectations before publication:
- November PPI — November actual: 0.4%. Markets were expecting 0.2%, unchanged from October
- YOY PPI — November actual: 3.0%. No forecast. Was 2.4% in October
- November core PPI — November actual: 0.1%. Markets were expecting 0.2%, down from October's 0.3%
- YOY core PPI — November actual: 3.5%. No forecast. Was 3.5% in October
You can see why market reactions were confused.
Coming up
Mortgage rates today
Today brings only the import price index (IPI). That measures changes in the prices of goods and commodities landing in American ports and airports and of imported services.
So, it sounds important. But investors rarely pay much attention to it.
Markets expect IPI prices in November to have fallen by 0.2%. That's much better than October's 0.3% rise.
