Mortgage Rates Today, Dec. 12, 2024: More Inflation Data Unlikely to Move Mortgage Rates Far
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.79% today, an increase of 0.18% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.76%, up by 0.08%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.86%, having risen by 0.01. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.03%, reflecting a decrease of 0.03%.
In brief
Yesterday's consumer price index (CPI) came in exactly on forecast. If anything, it was good for mortgage rates though they lost a little ground later in the day owing to other issues.
Mortgage rates today are unlikely to be moved far by this week's second price index, the producer price index (PPI). The CPI is far more powerful and PPIs often barely cause a ripple. The same goes for Friday's import price index (IPI), which is usually even weaker than the PPI.
In theory, any economic report can affect mortgage rates if it contains sufficiently shocking data. But we suggest you shouldn't lose sleep over the PPI or IPI.
That leaves the way clear through to next Wednesday's Federal Reserve announcement about its interest rate policy. Will it cut general interest rates by a quarter point (25 basis points) that day?
Markets are now convinced it will. The CME FedWatch tool shows investors backing such a cut by 98.6%, with wagering on the Fed holding rates steady at only 1.4%.
Four economic reports are due early next week that might influence mortgage rates:
- Two purchasing managers indexes from S&P Global on Monday
- November retail sales on Tuesday
- November industrial production, also on Tuesday
These could move mortgage rates on their publication days. But the Fed events on Wednesday are much more likely to affect them in the longer term.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.79% | 6.83% | +0.18% | -0.05% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.76% | 5.82% | +0.08% | -0.14% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.86% | 6.7% | +0.01% | -0.17% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.91% | 6.06% | +0.01% | -0.18% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.77% | 5.91% | +0.02% | -0.21% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.03% | 7.05% | -0.03% | -0.27% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.58% | 6.59% | -0.01% | -0.1% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.86% | 6.9% | +0.16% | +0.08% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.77% | 5.83% | +0.08% | +0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.87% | 6.7% | +0.02% | -0.17% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.91% | 6.06% | +0.02% | -0.18% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.64% | 6.64% | -0.03% | -0.06% |
Coming up
Mortgage rates today
This morning's producer price index (PPI) measures price movements earlier in the supply chain than the CPI. In other words, it covers changes in the manufacturing and wholesaling phases, before they affect retailers' shelves, gas pumps, restaurant menus, utility bills, and so on.
The PPI produces the same four headline figures that the CPI does. But, because it's less important, markets only have forecasts for a couple of those.
Here are market expectations for this morning's PPI:
- November PPI — Markets are expecting 0.2%, unchanged from October
- YOY PPI — No forecast. Was 2.4% in October
- November core PPI — Markets are expecting 0.2%, down from October's 0.3%
- YOY core PPI — No forecast. Was 3.5% in October
In its Economic Weekly e-newsletter on Monday, Comerica Bank suggested: "Producer prices probably rose moderately in November, but faster in year-over-year terms due to base effects." We'll see later how that prediction holds up.
Also this morning, we're expecting the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits during the week ending Dec. 7. Markets are expecting it to inch lower.
Tomorrow
Friday brings only the import price index (IPI). That measures changes in the prices of goods and commodities landing in American ports and airports and of imported services.
So, it sounds important. But markets rarely pay much attention to it.
