Mortgage Rates Today, Dec. 11, 2024: Key Inflation Report Today
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.61% today, a decrease of 0.03% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.69%, down by 0.04%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.85%, having dropped by 0.02. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.06%, reflecting a decrease of 0.01%.
In brief
Yesterday, we explained the significance of the consumer price index (CPI), due this morning at 8:30 a.m. ET. "It's the last important data the Federal Reserve will see before deciding whether to cut general interest rates next Wednesday," we wrote.
Not only will the Fed unveil its decision on whether or not to cut on Dec. 18, but it will also publish longer-term forecasts with insights into where it thinks interest rates will move in the future.
Late yesterday afternoon, a Barron's e-newsletter added some context: "There are already signs that a string of up-and-down inflation readings in the second half of 2024 have some policymakers feeling less confident about the path of price growth in the coming months. And there is growing support for a pause in interest-rate cuts in the not-too-distant future."
The CPI could easily make the difference between one last rate cut in 2024 and none. Read on for details of what markets are expecting from the report.
And remember yesterday's advice: Mortgage rates are likely to hold steady if the CPI comes in on forecast, to fall if inflation has slowed more than expected, and to rise if it has speeded up beyond expectations."
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.61% | 6.65% | -0.03% | -0.23% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.69% | 5.75% | -0.04% | -0.22% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.85% | 6.69% | -0.02% | -0.28% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.89% | 6.04% | -0.02% | -0.27% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.75% | 5.89% | +0.01% | -0.44% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.06% | 7.08% | -0.01% | -0.26% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.59% | 6.63% | -0.03% | -0.02% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.7% | 6.74% | -0.04% | -0.1% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.69% | 5.74% | -0.04% | -0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.85% | 6.69% | -0.02% | -0.3% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.89% | 6.04% | -0.03% | -0.28% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.66% | 6.7% | -0.03% | -0.01% |
Coming up
Mortgage rates today
It's all about the CPI today. It's unlikely that the monthly federal budget, due this afternoon, will make waves for mortgage rates.Price indexes contain four headline components. Two track price changes during the reporting month (November) and two are year-over-year (YOY) figures (Dec. 1, 2023-Nov. 30, 2024).
Each of those periods has a full CPI number, which shows how all prices in the survey have moved. And each has a "core CPI" figure, which is the same thing after food and energy prices have been stripped out.
Here are those four numbers, according to MarketWatch:
- November CPI — Markets are expecting 0.3%, up from October's 0.2%
- YOY CPI — Markets are expecting 2.7%, up from October's 2.6%
- November core CPI — Markets are expecting 0.3%, unchanged from October
- YOY core CPI — Markets are expecting 3.3%, unchanged from October
As we explained above, mortgage rates today are most likely to move lower if the CPI numbers are smaller than markets are expecting. However, we can never promise that. Sometimes, markets don't respond to new data as you'd expect.
Tomorrow
We're due another price index tomorrow and a third on Friday. But these tend to be way less influential over mortgage rates than the CPI.
Tomorrow's producer price index (PPI) measures price movements earlier in the supply chain than the CPI. In other words, it covers changes in the manufacturing and wholesaling phases, before they affect retailers' shelves, gas pumps, restaurant menus, utility bills, and so on.
The PPI produces the same four headline figures that the CPI does. But, because it's less important, markets only have forecasts for a couple of those.
Here are market expectations for tomorrow's PPI:
- November PPI — Markets are expecting 0.2%, unchanged from October
- YOY PPI — No forecast. Was 2.4% in October
- November core PPI — Markets are expecting 0.2%, down from October's 0.3%
- YOY core PPI — No forecast. Was 3.5% in October
In its Economic Weekly e-newsletter on Monday, Comerica Bank suggested: "Producer prices probably rose moderately in November, but faster in year-over-year terms due to base effects." We'll see how that prediction holds up.
Also tomorrow, we're expecting the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits during the week ending Dec. 7. Markets are expecting it to inch lower.
Friday
Friday brings only the import price index (IPI). That measures changes in the prices of goods and commodities landing in American ports and airports and of imported services.
So, it sounds important. But markets rarely pay much attention to it.
