Mortgage Rates Today, Dec. 10, 2024: Standing by for Tomorrow's Consumer Price Index
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.64% today, an increase of 0.06% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.73%, up by 0.08%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.88%, having risen by 0.09. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.07%, reflecting an increase of 0.05%.
In brief
According to MarketWatch, bond markets are concentrating on tomorrow's consumer price index (CPI: a powerful gauge of inflation) to the exclusion of pretty much everything else.
Barron's concurs. In an e-newsletter yesterday, it said, "The muted open to the week comes with investors focused on the latest round of inflation data from the consumer price index, which is scheduled to be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET. The stakes are significant."
Why significant? It's the last important data the Federal Reserve will see before deciding whether to cut general interest rates next Wednesday.
Right now, 89.5% of specialist investors are expecting a quarter-point (25-basis-point) cut and 10.5% think there will be no cut, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
But that could change tomorrow, especially if November's CPI disappoints. Markets are already expecting it to show no change in the core index (which excludes food and energy prices) and a small rise in the full index, says MarketWatch. Read more details below.
Mortgage rates are likely to hold steady if the CPI comes in on forecast, to fall if inflation has slowed, and to rise if it has speeded up.
Note that Dec. 18 Fed events will include the publication of its latest summary of economic projections, a quarterly event. This will reveal where the people who decide general interest rates think general interest rates will move in coming years.
Understandably, that's hugely influential and is capable of being more consequential for mortgage rates than the rate announcement itself.
The geopolitical flashpoints we drew your attention to yesterday haven't gone away. And cataclysmic events could yet drag markets' attention away from the CPI. But there's little sign of that happening yet.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.64% | 6.68% | +0.06% | -0.19% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.73% | 5.78% | +0.08% | -0.18% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.88% | 6.71% | +0.09% | -0.3% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.91% | 6.06% | +0.06% | -0.28% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.74% | 5.88% | +0.01% | -0.45% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.07% | 7.09% | +0.05% | -0.26% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.61% | 6.65% | +0.1% | +0.01% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.75% | 6.78% | +0.08% | -0.05% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.73% | 5.78% | +0.06% | -0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.87% | 6.71% | +0.08% | -0.31% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.91% | 6.06% | +0.08% | -0.3% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.69% | 6.73% | +0.12% | +0.02% |
Coming up
Mortgage rates today
Two economic reports are due today. First up is the National Federation of Independent Business's optimism index. That's expected to have improved to 94.8 (revised since yesterday) in November compared with 93.7 in October.
Later that morning, we're due the second reading of productivity during this year's third quarter (July to September). Markets expect that to be unchanged from the first reading at an annualized 2.2% increase.
There's a good chance these reports could fly under markets' radar, given that it's trained entirely on the CPI. And, if mortgage rates do move in response to today's data, any impact is unlikely to last long.
Tomorrow's CPI
Price indexes contain four headline components. Two track price changes during the reporting month (November) and two are year-over-year (YOY) figures (Dec. 1, 2023-Nov. 30, 2024).
Each of those periods has a full CPI number, which shows how all prices in the survey have moved. And each has a "core CPI" figure, which is the same thing after food and energy prices have been stripped out.
Here are those four numbers, according to MarketWatch:
- November CPI — Markets are expecting 0.3%, up from October's 0.2%
- YOY CPI — Markets are expecting 2.7%, up from October's 2.6%
- November core CPI — Markets are expecting 0.3%, unchanged from October
- YOY core CPI — Markets are expecting 3.3%, unchanged from October
As we explained above, mortgage rates are most likely to move lower tomorrow if tomorrow's numbers are smaller than markets are expecting.
