Mortgage Rates Today, Dec. 5, 2024: Standing By for Tomorrow's Jobs Report
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.65% today, a decrease of 0.08% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.8%, down by 0.02%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.98%, having dropped by 0.05. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.09%, reflecting a decrease of 0.11%.
In brief
We plan to publish tomorrow later than usual, at roughly 9 a.m. ET. That will allow us to bring you the outcome of that morning's jobs report and to assess its initial impact on markets.
Mortgage rates today may be similar to yesterday's: effectively inert. Markets are holding their breath ahead of tomorrow's jobs report.
Yesterday's minimal movement was a bit of a surprise. Mortgage rates started the day higher and then fell, ending up close to where they'd started.
If we didn't know, and you described yesterday's events to us, we'd have expected an appreciable fall. Here's what happened:
- Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed wouldn't yet consider the likely impact of President-elect Donald Trump's policies when deciding rates. They contained too many unknowns. That makes a cut to general interest rates more likely on Dec. 18.
- The French government toppled following a no-confidence vote in the National Assembly (parliament). U.S. Treasury bond yields fell on the news but climbed again later.
- Almost all yesterday's economic reports came in worse-than-expected for the economy, which means better-than-expected for mortgage rates.
There could be two explanations for mortgage rates' lack of movement. Either markets shrugged off the news as they focused on tomorrow's jobs report. Or lenders will be adjusting their rate cards this morning.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.65% | 6.69% | -0.08% | -0.37% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.8% | 5.85% | -0.02% | -0.28% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.98% | 6.81% | -0.05% | -0.34% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.01% | 6.15% | -0.02% | -0.36% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.79% | 5.93% | -0.2% | -0.44% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.09% | 7.11% | -0.11% | -0.24% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.58% | 6.61% | -0.06% | +0.01% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.74% | 6.77% | -0.09% | -0.27% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.8% | 5.85% | -0.01% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.96% | 6.78% | -0.05% | -0.36% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.01% | 6.15% | -0.02% | -0.36% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.64% | 6.67% | +-0% | +0.01% |
Coming up
Mortgage rates today
Mortgage rates today may move if lenders update their rate cards this morning after yesterday's news. And they might be affected by investors making last-minute wagers on the outcome of tomorrow's jobs report.
But they're unlikely to respond much to today's two economic reports. Those rarely have much impact.
Tomorrow
It covers November. Here's what markets are expecting from it, according to MarketWatch:
- Nonfarm payrolls (number of new jobs created during the month) — Markets expect 214,000, way up from October's 12,000, which was a freakish outlier.
- Unemployment rate — Markets expect 4.2%, up from October's 4.1%.
- Hourly wages — Markets expect a 0.3% increase, down from October's 0.4%.
To stand a good chance of mortgage rates falling in response, we need those figures to show the economy underperforming market expectations. That means lower nonfarm payrolls and hourly wage increases but a higher unemployment rate than markets are expecting.
We're also due consumer sentiment and consumer credit reports tomorrow, as well as speeches from four senior Fed officials. But these relatively minor things are usually overshadowed by blockbuster reports such as tomorrow's.
