Mortgage Rates Today, Aug. 30, 2024: Inflation Report Likely Good for Rates
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.35% today, an increase of 0.01% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.38%, up by 0.01%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.68%, having risen by 0.03. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.83%, reflecting a decrease of 0.01%.
In brief
Next week's economic reports focus mainly on employment. And the monthly jobs report, due next Friday, has the potential to undo today's change in mortgage rates and then some. So, let's hope it's a rate-friendly one.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.35% | 6.38% | +0.01% | -0.4% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.38% | 5.45% | +0.01% | -0.51% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.68% | 6.52% | +0.03% | -0.31% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.66% | 5.82% | +0.03% | -0.43% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.7% | 5.75% | +0.01% | -0.27% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.83% | 6.86% | -0.01% | -0.36% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.78% | 6.83% | +0.05% | -0.31% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.46% | 6.5% | +0.01% | -0.38% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.38% | 5.44% | +0.01% | -0.52% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.67% | 6.51% | +0.02% | -0.33% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.67% | 5.82% | +0.04% | -0.43% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.88% | 6.94% | +0.01% | -0.24% |
Coming up
Mortgage rates today
This morning's crucial inflation report was the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. And it will likely be a bit good for mortgage rates. It's so important that we delayed publishing until it came out.
It is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. And it's the last such report the Fed will see before it decides on Sep. 18 whether to cut general interest rates and by how much. That decision is critical for the economy, markets and mortgage rates.
The PCE price index comprises four main components. Two measure price changes during the reporting month (July) and two are year-over-year (YOY) figures (Aug. 1, 2023-Jul. 31, 2024).
There are two headline numbers for each period. One measures changes in all prices in the survey. And the second does the same but excludes energy and food prices. The latter is called "core" inflation and is said to reveal underlying trends better.
Here are today's actual figures alongside market expectations, according to MarketWatch:
- July PCE price index — Today's actual: 0.2%. Markets expected 0.2%, up from June's 0.1%
- YOY PCE price index — Today's actual: 2.5%. Markets expected 2.5%, unchanged since June
- July core PCE — Today's actual: 0.2%. Markets expected 0.2%, unchanged since June
- YOY core PCE — Today's actual: 2.6%. Markets expected 2.7%, up from June's 2.6%
For mortgage rates to stand a good chance of falling, we needed today's actuals to be lower than markets were expecting. But three numbers were on-forecast and one was only very slightly lower.
We'll have to wait to see how markets react to such mildly encouraging figures.
It's unlikely that this morning's other reports (the August Chicago business barometer and the final reading of consumer sentiment this month), which will be published within the next hour, will affect mortgage rates appreciably. At least, they'd have to contain some shocking numbers to do so.
Next week
Markets will be closed next Monday for the Labor Day holiday. And we won't be publishing this report then.
Tuesday's calendar features two purchasing managers' indexes (PMIs) for the manufacturing sector in August, plus July's construction spending data. We'll brief you more fully on those that morning.
But all next week's reports will probably be blown out of the water by Friday's jobs report for August if it contains surprises.
Right now, markets may be more worried about employment data than even inflation figures. So, we must hope that the jobs report shows the labor market continuing to tighten. That could drive mortgage rates even lower.
Peter Warden has been covering mortgage, real estate, and personal finance for 15 years. He has appeared on The Mortgage Reports, Credit Sesame, Bills.com, and other publications.
