Mortgage Rates Today, Aug. 22, 2024: "Everybody Is Waiting for Powell"
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.42% today, a decrease of 0.02% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.46%, down by 0.05%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.67%, having dropped by 0.12. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.97%, reflecting a decrease of 0.03%.
In brief
MarketWatch's Market Extra report late yesterday afternoon had the headline, "Bond ETFs rise after revised jobs data but ‘everybody is waiting for Powell’"
Indeed they are. Tomorrow at 10 a.m. (ET), Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is due to take to the stage at the Jackson Hole economic symposium.
And the financial world anxiously awaits his words. Might he hint that a larger-than-expected cut in general interest rates is on the cards for Sep. 18?
He may have grounds to, following yesterday's annual revision to the last 12 monthly jobs reports. That showed a total of 818,000 fewer jobs added to nonfarm payrolls than the monthly reports had suggested.
Meanwhile, also yesterday, the minutes of the last meeting of the Fed's rate-setting body showed several members favored a July cut. And a "vast majority" thought "it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at their next meeting."
So, the chances have improved over the last 24 hours of Mr. Powell tomorrow dangling the prospect of a half-point cut on Sep. 18. And that could be good for mortgage rates. More below.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.42% | 6.45% | -0.02% | -0.47% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.46% | 5.52% | -0.05% | -0.56% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.67% | 6.51% | -0.12% | -0.42% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.71% | 5.85% | +-0% | -0.5% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.64% | 5.68% | -0.14% | -0.39% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.97% | 6.99% | -0.03% | -0.32% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.73% | 6.77% | -0.06% | -0.41% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.51% | 6.55% | -0.04% | -0.45% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.47% | 5.52% | -0.05% | -0.56% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.67% | 6.51% | -0.13% | -0.42% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.7% | 5.85% | +-0% | -0.51% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.8% | 6.85% | -0.04% | -0.48% |
Coming up
Today's economic reports
Four economic reports are due later this morning:
- Initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug. 17
- Two preliminary August purchasing managers' indexes (PMIs) from S&P: One for the services sector and the other for manufacturing
- July existing home sales
These might move mortgage rates a bit. However, if we thought they'd make a significant difference, we'd delay publication of this report until after the data are released. If we're wrong about their impact, we'll be back to revise (and eat) our words later.
But, typically, these particular reports have only a brief and limited effect on mortgage rates.
Normally, weekly data are largely disregarded because they're notoriously volatile and contain many outliers. However, investors are currently tightly focused on employment. So, they may react to every passing labor report. But we'd be surprised if any reaction were sharp.
PMIs quite often move mortgage rates. Their surveys of procurement activity across many organizations mean they're good at predicting future economic activity.
Still, the changes they tend to make to mortgage rates are typically temporary and limited.
Tomorrow's Powell speech
We already covered tomorrow's speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell in the In Brief (well, relatively brief) section, above. It always had the potential to be this week's most consequential event for mortgage rates.
However, it may turn out to be a dud. Mr. Powell is a master of the non-commital. And Wall Street will be reading between the lines of the speech to interpret it.
Sometimes, it gets its translations right though it tends to hear what it wants to hear.
One thing that is likely to be a dud is tomorrow's lone economic report. That covers new home sales in July. And it would have to contain some shocking figures for it to move mortgage rates far.
Tomorrow, we'll give you a flavor of what to expect next week.
