Mortgage Rates Today, Aug. 21, 2024: A Slow Day, Perhaps
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.44% today, unchanged since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.52%, down by 0.02%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.79%, having dropped by 0.02. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7%, reflecting no change.
In brief
The volatility in mortgage rates we saw earlier in the month seems to have largely dissipated. But the last three business days have each brought a modest fall.
And, according to Mortgage News Daily's archive, average rates for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages are suddenly down below 6.5% again.
Might this afternoon's publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve's rate-setting body create new volatility? Well, it's possible. But we judge it unlikely.
The greatest risk of volatility (good or bad) returning this week probably comes from a speech, due Friday, from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
If that passes off without incident, we might be in for a quiet week.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.44% | 6.47% | +0% | -0.45% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.52% | 5.58% | -0.02% | -0.51% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.79% | 6.63% | -0.02% | -0.28% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.71% | 5.86% | -0.04% | -0.48% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.78% | 5.82% | -0.03% | -0.25% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7% | 7.02% | +0% | -0.28% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.78% | 6.83% | -0.01% | -0.36% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.55% | 6.58% | +-0% | -0.41% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.51% | 5.57% | -0.02% | -0.52% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.8% | 6.64% | -0.02% | -0.28% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.7% | 5.85% | -0.04% | -0.48% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.84% | 6.9% | -0.01% | -0.45% |
Coming up
This afternoon's Fed minutes
We can't promise that the publication this afternoon of the minutes of the last meeting of the Fed's rate-setting body (the Federal Open Market Committee or FOMC) won't affect mortgage rates. But we have two reasons for thinking it won't move them far.
First, the Fed has gotten much better in recent years at being open with markets. Immediately after each of the eight FOMC meetings annually, Fed Chair Jerome Powell hosts a news conference. And he's pretty honest and upfront. So, we already have a pretty good idea of what was said at the last meeting.
And, secondly, we've had a lot of economic reports since that meeting, which have likely changed some FOMC members' minds. So, who cares what they thought on Jul. 30-31?
Speaking of economic reports, none is due today. So, the only scheduled driver of changes in mortgage rates is the FOMC minutes.
Tomorrow's economic reports
Four economic reports are on tomorrow's calendar:
- Initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug. 17
- Two preliminary August purchasing managers' indexes (PMIs) from S&P: One for the services sector and the other for manufacturing
- July existing home sales
The first and last rarely affect mortgage rates. However, there's a possibility that, this time, the first (new claims for unemployment benefits) just might.
Normally, weekly data are largely disregarded because they're notoriously volatile and contain many outliers. However, investors are currently tightly focused on employment. So, they may react to every passing labor report. But we'd be surprised if any reaction were sharp.
PMIs quite often move mortgage rates. Their surveys of procurement activity across many organizations mean they're good at predicting future economic activity.
Still, the changes they tend to make to mortgage rates are typically temporary and limited.
Friday's Fed speech
The event this week most likely to affect mortgage rates has always been a speech on Friday morning's calendar by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Investors are desperate for hints about whether the FOMC will cut general interest rates on Sep. 18 by a quarter-point or a half-point. The bigger the expected cut, the better for mortgage rates.
Overnight, the CME FedWatch tool suggested that most investors expect the smaller cut, by 69.5% against 30.5% for the half-point one.
But Mr. Powell has the Fed's loudest and most influential voice. And, if he does choose to drop a hint, that could significantly change both those odds and mortgage rates.
The trouble is, nobody knows what he'll say. So, all we can do is react after the event.
Peter Warden has been covering mortgage, real estate, and personal finance for 15 years. He has appeared on The Mortgage Reports, Credit Sesame, Bills.com, and other publications.
