Mortgage Rates Today, Aug. 15, 2024: Retail Sales Bad for Rates
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.56% today, an increase of 0.08% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.68%, up by 0.16%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.83%, having dropped by 0.07. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7%, reflecting a decrease of 0.07%.
In brief
This morning's retail sales report for July is unlikely to help mortgage rates today. It showed those sales rising that month more than markets were expecting. And that could put upward pressure on those rates.
Yesterday's consumer price index (CPI) helped those rates only a bit because it was only a bit better than expected. The Wall Street Journal (paywall) says, "Markets reacted in muted fashion, a sign that investors have already moved on from worrying about inflation to fretting about the job market." Let's hope that remains the case.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.56% | 6.6% | +0.08% | -0.26% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.68% | 5.73% | +0.16% | -0.3% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.83% | 6.66% | -0.07% | -0.27% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.86% | 6% | -0.07% | -0.32% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.76% | 5.79% | -0.1% | -0.26% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7% | 7.03% | -0.07% | -0.26% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.81% | 6.86% | +0.09% | -0.39% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.68% | 6.72% | +0.11% | -0.25% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.67% | 5.72% | +0.16% | -0.3% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.82% | 6.65% | -0.07% | -0.3% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.85% | 6% | -0.07% | -0.32% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.88% | 6.93% | +0.1% | -0.33% |
Today's data
Retail sales increased in July by 1%, a report this morning revealed. And that was appreciably higher than the 0.3% markets were expecting, according to MarketWatch.
Later this morning, at 9:15 a.m. Eastern, the Federal Reserve is due to release productivity and capacity utilization data, also for July. If that comes even lower than the -0.1% markets are expecting, that could help offset some of the earlier report's damage.
But, typically, retail sales influence markets much more than industrial production.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow's calendar features several economic reports. But, only one typically moves mortgage rates at all. And even that one tends to make small and temporary changes.
It's a preliminary measure of consumer sentiment in August. And markets are expecting it to have improved to 66.6 from 66.4 in July.
As usual, we'd like a lower-than-expected number to stand a chance of seeing mortgage rates fall in response. But it would have to be a lot lower to make much difference.
Coming up
With today's retail sales report out of the way, we're in for a lean period for economic reports. We're due tomorrow's consumer sentiment and a couple of purchasing managers' indexes are scheduled for next Thursday. And that's pretty much it.
The minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee are expected next Wednesday. In the past, these have often been consequential for mortgage rates.
However, more recently, the Fed has been more open about its discussions, and surprises are rare. One can never be sure, but these minutes might turn out to be a non-event.
More interestingly, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak next Friday at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Mr. Powell's words always have the potential to move markets and mortgage rates.
Investors will be checking his speech for hints about the amount by which the rate-setting committee is likely to cut general interest rates on Sep. 18.
Intriguingly, odds on a quarter-point cut that day grew yesterday, after the good CPI came out, according to the CME FedWatch tool. And that means investors think a half-point fall is less likely than they did 24 hours ago.
That feels counterintuitive. And we don't know why investors are taking that line. We'll let you know when we find out.
Peter Warden has been covering mortgage, real estate, and personal finance for 15 years. He has appeared on The Mortgage Reports, Credit Sesame, Bills.com, and other publications.
