Mortgage Rates Today, Apr. 15, 2025: Neither Good nor Bad News Seems to Last
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.87% today, a decrease of 0.11% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.95%, down by 0.06%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.25%, having dropped by 0.04. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.47%, reflecting a decrease of 0.04%.
The bigger picture
Yesterday, we painted an extensive and dark picture of the outlook for mortgage rates. But those rates started the week with a worthwhile fall. So, not everything's terrible.
What changed? "Investors welcomed a tariff rollback for the tech industry, alongside news of a potential pause on tariffs for some automakers," says The Wall Street Journal.
Fed civil war?
And that momentum may have been helped by a speech by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller yesterday. "If the slowdown is significant and even threatens a recession, then I would expect to favor cutting the policy rate [which directly affects most general interest rates] sooner, and to a greater extent than I had previously thought,” said Waller. "The risk of recession would outweigh the risk of escalating inflation."
Well, that would certainly help. A Fed cut to general interest rates typically pushes mortgage rates downward, though that movement tends to happen well before the cut is implemented.
However, we must admit to being surprised by Waller's remarks. As recently as Apr. 4, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said:
"While tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation, it is also possible that the effects could be more persistent. Avoiding that outcome would depend on keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored, on the size of the effects, and on how long it takes for them to pass through fully to prices. Our obligation is to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored and to make certain that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem."
So, Waller seems to want to focus on holding off a recession, while Powell sees reining in inflation as the priority. The problem is that the two positions are mutually exclusive. Cutting general interest rates tends to drive up inflation, while hiking them is likely to worsen a recession.
Powell is widely seen as the more powerful voice. But, if Waller manages to win over a majority of the Fed's rate-setting committee, he could swing the decision his way. That committee next meets in just over three weeks.
Uncertainty applies to mortgage rates, too
Who can remember the last time uncertainty drove such wild volatility? Clichés about rollercoasters just don't cut it.
The reality is that nobody has much of a clue what to expect next in any market, including the one that largely determines mortgage rates. Our advice in such circumstances is to maintain your equanimity. Feeling crushed by bad days and euphoric about good ones achieves nothing.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.87% | 6.9% | -0.11% | +0.15% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.95% | 6.01% | -0.06% | +0.22% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.25% | 7.44% | -0.04% | +0.24% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.35% | 6.51% | -0.03% | +0.29% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.34% | 6.49% | -0.06% | +0.25% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.47% | 7.49% | -0.04% | +0.36% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.88% | 6.93% | -0.13% | +0.11% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.95% | 6.98% | -0.11% | +0.11% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.96% | 6.01% | -0.06% | +0.24% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.24% | 7.44% | -0.05% | +0.24% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.46% | 6.61% | -0.03% | +0.35% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 7% | 7.05% | +0.02% | +0.13% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates — as we've seen frequently recently, especially over tariffs.
Mortgage rates today
This morning brings the March import price index (IPI). That's typically the least important of all inflation reports, so it would likely need to reveal some truly shocking data for investors to take notice of it. After all, markets have recently shrugged off much more important reports as they've focused exclusively on tariff news.
According to the MarketWatch economic calendar, markets expect the IPI to slow to 0.1% from 0.4% in February.
Tomorrow and later in the week
The week's star economic report is March's retail sales, due tomorrow. Also tomorrow, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to give a speech. Both could move mortgage rates, depending on what else is competing for investors' attention.
Bond markets close at 2 p.m. (EST) on Thursday and remain closed on Good Friday.
