Mortgage Rates Today, Apr. 10, 2025: Consumer Price Index Due This Morning
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.92% today, a decrease of 0.08% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.95%, down by 0.12%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.22%, having dropped by 0.09. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.46%, reflecting an increase of 0.03%.
The bigger picture
Yesterday, we wrote that the day's big economic news would likely be the minutes of the Federal Reserve's last rate-setting committee meeting — "assuming there are no more tariff scares."
Well, there was more tariff news, though it was more of a bombshell than a scare. It was announced that the U.S. would pause tariffs over the 10% baseline for 90 days for all countries except China.
Rather than seeing this as a matter of kicking the can down the road (literally for aluminum imports), stock markets responded as if cures had been simultaneously been unveiled for disease, war, poverty and reality TV. "All told, U.S. listed stocks added $5.1 trillion in market value, according to Dow Jones Market Data, after shedding $7.7 trillion from April 2 through April 8," reported a Barron's e-newsletter.
Few seem to be asking what happens in 90 days' time.
While bond yields fell from morning highs, many ended the day higher than they started it. And mortgage rates had another bad day, ending uncomfortably close to the 7% mark for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.
Still, there's a good chance they'll open this morning a little lower when lenders issue updated rate cards.
Today's consumer price index
Yesterday's tariff announcement blew the Fed minutes out of the water that afternoon. Will this morning's consumer price index (CPI) be similarly overshadowed? It's hard to imagine a second tariff bombshell with that much power.
And you might wonder whether Wall Street, having slept on it, might be a touch embarrassed by yesterday's immoderate euphoria. There might even be some rowing back from late positions.
Read on for what markets are expecting from the CPI.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.92% | 6.95% | -0.08% | +0.29% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.95% | 6.01% | -0.12% | +0.31% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.22% | 7.42% | -0.09% | +0.31% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.32% | 6.47% | -0.1% | +0.3% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.35% | 6.49% | -0.12% | +0.27% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.46% | 7.49% | +0.03% | +0.45% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.83% | 6.87% | +0% | +0.19% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 7% | 7.03% | -0.08% | +0.29% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.95% | 6.01% | -0.12% | +0.34% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.22% | 7.41% | -0.09% | +0.31% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.43% | 6.58% | -0.11% | +0.38% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.96% | 7% | -0.02% | +0.19% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates — as we've seen frequently recently, especially over tariffs.
Here's Comerica Bank's commentary on the week ahead:
"Egg prices were a key driver of inflation in recent months, but fell in March, helping cool inflation at the producer and consumer levels. The University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumer Sentiment will probably show another steep drop in confidence and rise in inflation expectations in the April preliminary release.
Mortgage rates today
Today's CPI for March is likely to be today's big economic news, subject to major tariff stories.
Price indices come with four headline figures. Two cover the reporting month (March) and the other two monitor year-over-year (YOY) price changes (Apr. 1, 2024-Mar. 31, 2025).
One for each of those periods reports how prices have moved for all the items in the survey. That's plain CPI. The other monitors "core" CPI, meaning all prices except those for food and energy. Food and energy costs are often especially volatile, and stripping them out is supposed to expose underlying inflation.
Here's what the MarketWatch economic calendar says markets are expecting from today's CPI report:
- March CPI — Slowing to 0.1% from 0.2% in February
- YOY CPI — Slowing to 2.6% from 2.8% in February
- March core CPI — Holding at 0.2%, unchanged since February
- YOY core CPI — Slowing to 3.0% from 3.1% in February
For the best chance of mortgage rates falling in response to these data, we'd need to see lower numbers than markets are expecting.
Later this week
Tomorrow brings the producer price index (PPI) for March and the preliminary consumer sentiment index for April. PPIs are typically way less important than CPIs but can occasionally move mortgage rates.
