Mortgage Rates Today, Apr. 8, 2025: Wild Ride for Markets Sees Rates Climb Sharply

The bigger picture

Mortgage rates soared yesterday, taking them in a single day from last Friday's lowest level over the last month to match the highest level. According to Mortgage News Daily's archive, that leap more than wiped out the gains we've seen since last Wednesday's tariff announcements.

Yesterday, we wrote, "If we know one thing about markets, it's that they're unpredictable." And that may be truer this morning than ever.

Although U.S. markets were less calamitous yesterday, the level of uncertainty is creating a jittery, electric atmosphere. Many were hoping before last Wednesday's tariff announcement that it would bring a degree of certainty. But it feels today as if investors can be sure of less now than then.

For example, stock indices gained and then lost roughly $2 trillion in about 30 minutes yesterday morning as a result of an unsubstantiated rumor, according to a Wall Street Journal report. That wouldn't normally happen at a calm and rational time.

Meanwhile, Wall Street remains deeply pessimistic about the economy's future in terms of growth and inflation. And CNN Business's fear and greed index stood at 4 last night, unmoved since Friday. That's 4 out of 100, a frighteningly low and very rare reading.

What this means for mortgage rates

Unpredictable markets mean unpredictable mortgage rates. And yesterday's sharp rise in those rates, the biggest so far in 2025, came as a shock.

But don't despair quite yet. The current degree of volatility means that falls remain likely. And that's especially true given the gloomy outlook many investors have of the country's economic prospects.

Just bear in mind what we've said repeatedly in recent days. If tariffs generate inflation, that will likely limit the amount by which mortgage rates can fall.

So don't expect rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages to dip much below 6% this year or next. Of course, we might see lower ones, but they're a pretty wild bet right now.

Coming up

Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates — as we've seen frequently recently, especially over tariffs.

Here's Comerica Bank's commentary on the week ahead:

"While playing second fiddle to the tariff headlines roiling the stock market, the March FOMC meeting minutes and key inflation readings are the main economic releases this week. Following last week’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs, the minutes are likely dated but might provide clues as to how monetary policymakers will react to a slowing economy with rising inflation. Egg prices were a key driver of inflation in recent months, but fell in March, helping cool inflation at the producer and consumer levels. The University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumer Sentiment will probably show another steep drop in confidence and rise in inflation expectations in the April preliminary release. Small Business Optimism also likely took a leg down.

Mortgage rates today

The MarketWatch economic calendar has only one economic report today. And it's one that rarely affects mortgage rates.

It is the March small business optimism index from the National Federation of Independent Business. Markets expect it to fall to 98.7 from 100.7 in February.

Later this week

Two events on this week's calendar are especially likely to move mortgage rates. The first is the publication tomorrow afternoon of the minutes of the last meeting of the Fed's rate-setting committee. Investors will be especially interested in whether there were discussions of the likely impact of new tariffs and, if so, what was said.

The second event is Thursday's consumer price index (CPI) for March. This sometimes rivals the jobs report as an influencer of mortgage rates.