Mortgage Rates Today, Apr. 7, 2025: Will the Slide in Rates and Stocks Continue?
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.61% today, an increase of 0.1% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.6%, up by 0.08%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.83%, having risen by 0.04. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.07%, reflecting an increase of 0.09%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates fell only modestly on Friday, while stock indices plunged for a second day. The relationship between the two is never perfect, but sometimes, those rates take a while to catch up with stocks. So, it's possible mortgage rates will start this morning lower than their Friday close.
It's the tariffs, stupid!
Yesterday, MarketWatch explained what's been happening. Wednesday's "widespread tariffs have unleashed carnage on U.S. stocks, fears of a global trade war and dread about the American economy," it said.
Two pieces of bad news on Friday saw Thursday's slide continue. First up was a move in Beijing, which The New York Times reported under the headline, "Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates With 34% Tariffs."
Some had hoped that the Federal Reserve would intervene to support markets. But such optimism was dashed later in the day when Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke to financial journalists:
"We have stressed that it will be very difficult to assess the likely economic effects of higher tariffs until there is greater certainty
about the details, such as what will be tariffed, at what level and for what duration, and the extent of retaliation from our trading partners," said Powell. "While uncertainty remains elevated, it is now becoming clear that the tariff increases will be significantly larger than expected. The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth. The size and duration of these effects remain uncertain. While tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation, it is also possible that the effects could be more persistent. Avoiding that outcome would depend on keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored, on the size of the effects, and on how long it takes for them to pass through fully to prices. Our obligation is to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored and to make certain that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem."
Inflation problem
Powell was referring to a point we've been stressing since last Wednesday. Fears of a slowing economy can certainly deliver lower mortgage rates, as we saw last Thursday and Friday.
However, overheated inflation can have the opposite effect, sending those rates higher. As Powell said, we can't yet be certain whether the trade war will create a one-time hit to prices or a more sustained series of hits. Some economists worry we'll experience the latter, and Powell seemed to us to be hinting that the Fed will focus on keeping inflation reined in rather than jump-starting economic growth.
That would likely mean that the Fed will cut general interest rates even fewer times this year than it previously planned. And that was only twice.
To be clear, the Fed doesn't set mortgage rates. But its policy on general interest rates certainly heavily influences the bond market that does largely determine mortgage rates.
How long will this go on?
Late yesterday afternoon, The New York Times published an article under the headline, "After a Blowout Week, Wall Street Decision Makers Brace for More Chaos."
The article continued, "In conversations with The New York Times over the weekend, bankers, executives and traders said they felt flashbacks to the 2007-8 global financial crisis, one that took down a number of Wall Street’s giants. Leaving out the brutal, but relatively short-lived market panic that erupted at the start of the coronavirus pandemic, the velocity of last week’s market decline — stocks fell 10 percent over just two days — was topped only by the waves of selling that came as Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008."
So, the Times seems to think the carnage in markets might continue. And, overnight, stock markets in Asia and Europe plunged while futures for New York indices also tumbled, suggesting the newspaper could be right.
But, if we know one thing about markets, it's that they're unpredictable.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.61% | 6.64% | +0.1% | +0.01% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.6% | 5.66% | +0.08% | -0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.83% | 7.04% | +0.04% | -0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.86% | 6.01% | +0.04% | -0.16% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.84% | 5.98% | +0.01% | -0.25% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.07% | 7.09% | +0.09% | +0.05% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.35% | 6.38% | +0.03% | -0.42% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.73% | 6.76% | +0.09% | +0.01% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.6% | 5.66% | +0.09% | -0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.82% | 7.03% | +0.03% | -0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.97% | 6.12% | +0.05% | -0.08% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.44% | 6.47% | +0.04% | -0.4% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates — as we've seen frequently recently, especially over tariffs.
So, be aware today of relevant news stories. If there are more reports of important foreign governments retaliating against U.S. tariffs, those could send mortgage rates lower yet.
Mortgage rates today
This week begins with a couple of quiet days for economic reports. The MarketWatch economic calendar has only one such report today and tomorrow. And neither of them typically has the slightest effect on mortgage rates.This afternoon's is consumer credit in February. And tomorrow morning's is the March small business optimism index from the National Federation of Independent Business.
Next week
Two events on this week's calendar are especially likely to move mortgage rates. The first is the publication on Wednesday of the minutes of the last meeting of the Fed's rate-setting committee. Investors will be especially interested in whether there were discussions of the likely impact of new tariffs and, if so, what was said.
The second event is Thursday's consumer price index (CPI) for March. This sometimes rivals the jobs report as an influencer of mortgage rates.
Having said that, last Friday's jobs report seemed to be largely overshadowed by that day's tariff carnage. So, how much impact the CPI has may be largely down to whether markets have settled down by the time it's published.
