Mortgage Rates Today, Apr. 4, 2025: Will Today's Jobs Report Affect Rates?
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.51% today, a decrease of 0.07% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.52%, down by 0.08%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.8%, having dropped by 0.02. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.98%, reflecting a decrease of 0.04%.
As mentioned yesterday, we're publishing later than normal today to bring you the fresh data contained in this morning's jobs report.
The bigger picture
Two headlines early yesterday evening exposed the scale of markets' response to the latest tariff news.
The first, from a Wall Street Journal e-news alert, said, "Stocks Suffer Biggest One-Day Wipeout in Value Since March 2020," which was when they were freaking out about the global Covid-19 pandemic.
The second, from Mortgage News Daily, revealed that last night brought the "Lowest Mortgage Rates in More Than 5 Months." Yes, as we predicted at 4 a.m. (EST) yesterday, Thursday was a very good day for those rates.
The question now is whether this morning's jobs report will be surprising enough to grab markets' attention when they're already punch-drunk after "Liberation Day." Read on for today's employment data and our take on how they might affect mortgage rates.
Unfortunately, China overnight changed the narrative, announcing tariffs that matched those set in Washington D.C. on Wednesday "China lashed back at ... [U.S.] tariffs, applying 34% levies on all imported goods from the U.S. Beijing said the levies would come into effect next Thursday, the day after a big part of [our] promised tariffs go live," according to the Wall Street Journal.
That was enough to send U.S. stock indices yet lower, probably taking mortgage rates further down, too.
Inflation and mortgage rates
Our analysis yesterday about how the inflationary effects of tariffs might limit falls in mortgage rates was reinforced later that day in an e-newsletter by Erika Giovanetti, a U.S. News consumer lending analyst. "While economic weakness could drive down mortgage rates in the short term, tariff-induced price hikes could lead to stickier inflation over the coming months," she wrote. "Consumers now anticipate higher price growth in 2025, and inflation expectations can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. If tariffs reignite inflation, as many economists expect, interest rates could stay higher for longer. Plus, homebuyers may not feel comfortable entering the market in such uncertain times — lower mortgage rates or not."
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has a speaking engagement at 11:25 a.m. Eastern this morning. And Wall Street will be listening intently to his every word. Investors are desperate to know whether Powell thinks Wednesday's tariff announcements will have affected the Fed's plans for future cuts to general interest rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.51% | 6.54% | -0.07% | -0.07% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.52% | 5.57% | -0.08% | -0.07% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.8% | 7.01% | -0.02% | -0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.82% | 5.96% | -0.07% | -0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.83% | 5.97% | -0.15% | +0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.98% | 6.99% | -0.04% | +0.04% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.32% | 6.35% | -0.14% | -0.33% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.64% | 6.67% | -0.05% | -0.04% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.52% | 5.57% | -0.07% | -0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.79% | 7% | -0.01% | -0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.92% | 6.07% | -0.08% | +0.03% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.39% | 6.43% | -0.19% | -0.4% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates — as we've seen frequently recently, especially over tariffs.
Mortgage rates today
This morning's March jobs report (aka the employment situation report) is out. These are often the single most consequential economic report in any given month.
Here are this morning's figures, in bold, alongside market expectations, according to the MarketWatch economic calendar:
- Nonfarm payrolls (number of new jobs created in March) — 228,000. Markets were expecting 140,000, down from February's 151,000
- Unemployment rate — 4.2%. Markets were expecting 4.1%, unchanged since February
- Average hourly wages — 0.3%. Markets were expecting 0.3%, unchanged since February
Normally, such figures might send mortgage rates a bit lower, based on the better-than-expected number of new jobs. But are they sufficiently surprising to jolt already traumatized markets? We aren't sure.
Even if they are, the Fed chair's speech later this morning (see above) could undo or accelerate any such changes, providing he says something new.
Next week
Two events on next week's calendar are especially likely to move mortgage rates. The first is the publication on Wednesday of the minutes of the last meeting of the Fed's rate-setting committee. Investors will be especially interested in whether there were discussions of the likely impact of new tariffs and, if so, what was said.
The second event is Thursday's consumer price index (CPI) for March. This sometimes rivals the jobs report as an influencer of mortgage rates.
