Mortgage Rates Today, Apr. 2, 2025: It's Tariffs Day. Buckle Up!

The bigger picture

Today could be huge for mortgage rates, markets and the American economy and people. Whether it's hugely great or hugely bad will depend on what tariffs are announced at 4 p.m. (EST) in the Rose Garden of the White House — and how markets respond to the announcements.

Yesterday afternoon, CNN gave a worst-case scenario: a 20% universal tariff — combined with full retaliation from other nations on US goods. "A Moody’s simulation found that such an escalation in the trade war would wipe out 5.5 million jobs, lift the unemployment rate to 7% and cause US GDP to drop by 1.7% from peak to trough," said the broadcaster, citing Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi. That would likely cause mortgage rates to tumble, at least in the short term.

However, many (including Moody's) expect this afternoon's announcements to be much milder than that. If they're even milder than Wall Street expects, mortgage rates might rise a little as markets breathe a sigh of relief that things aren't going to be as bad as some feared. If they hit the sweet spot of meeting expectations — not that there's any sort of consensus around what's coming — those rates might barely move as the optimists' and pessimists' positions cancel each other out.

Of course, we won't immediately know how Wall Street reacts because the announcement will come after markets close. But we'll get some clues from markets in Europe and Asia. And we should keep an eye on futures markets for New York stock indices.

This time tomorrow, we'll update you on how things are unfolding and what it all might mean for mortgage rates.

Read on for information about today's economic reports. But don't be surprised if they're comprehensively swamped by this afternoon's announcement.

Coming up

Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates — as we've seen frequently recently, especially over tariffs.

Here are the thoughts of Comerica Bank's chief economist on this week's economic reports:

"The March jobs report will probably show a modest increase in employment and a small uptick in the unemployment rate. The average workweek is
expected to have edged higher, while wages likely rose moderately. Job openings likely eased in February. [They did.] The ISM Manufacturing PMI will probably report that the manufacturing sector slipped back into contraction last month. [It did.] The ISM Services PMI, on the other hand, is expected to show continued expansion of the services sector, though at a slower pace. Construction spending likely eased in February. [It didn't.] The trade deficit in goods and services probably narrowed in February on the back of a lower goods trade shortfall."

Mortgage rates today

This morning's MarketWatch economic calendar contains only two reports. The first is the ADP employment report for March. This covers only the private sector and isn't regarded as being as authoritative as the official jobs report, due Friday.

However, it's sometimes seen as a bellwether for that official report, so it can be influential some months. Markets expect it to show the number of new private-sector jobs created in March to be 120,000, up from February's 77,000.

Today's other report covers factory orders in February. They're expected to slow to 0.6%, down from January's 1.7%.

As a general rule, mortgage rates tend to fall when actual figures are smaller than markets are expecting and rise when they're bigger.

Later this week

This week's other big day is Friday. That's when the March jobs report is due to land. And that's often the single most consequential economic report in any given month.

Meanwhile, there are reports that can be influential due every day this week, starting today. We'll walk you through them all as the week progresses.