Mortgage Rates Today, Apr. 1, 2025: Markets Brace for "Liberation Day"
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.6% today, a decrease of 0.07% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.65%, the same as one day ago. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.89%, having dropped by 0.03. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.99%, reflecting a decrease of 0.03%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates are largely determined by the yield on a type of bond, the mortgage-backed security (MBS). And MBS yields often shadow those on 10-year Treasury notes, a form of government debt.
So, the MarketWatch report on what happened to those notes yesterday (and why it happened) likely applies to mortgage rates, too. It said, "Monday’s flight-to-safety trade into U.S. government debt temporarily sent the 10-year Treasury yield below an important technical level and
shattered the previous sense of calm that many investors and traders had about the threat of U.S.-imposed tariffs."
So, investors are already maneuvering ahead of tomorrow's so-called Liberation Day, a sort of big-bang event at which plans for most tariffs will be unveiled. There were plenty of leaks and hints over the weekend, many of them contradictory, about what to expect. And that means nobody knows anything much.
Investors are divided about how markets might react to tomorrow's news. Some hope the new information will bring a level of certainty that's been sorely missed in recent months. Others fear that any such certainty will swiftly disappear as foreign governments, domestic businesses and special-interest groups bring pressure to bear for almost immediate revisions to the new tariffs.
Purely selfishly, we who want lower mortgage rates must hope that the new tariffs will be more far-reaching and severe than most expect. That would likely send stock indices, bond yields and mortgage rates falling. More modest levies could see those rates rise.
Don't underestimate the potential for volatility tomorrow. It could turn out to be 2025's most consequential day for mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.6% | 6.64% | -0.07% | +0.05% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.65% | 5.71% | +0% | +0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.89% | 7.1% | -0.03% | +0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.96% | 6.1% | -0.03% | +0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.93% | 6.07% | -0.08% | -0.07% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.99% | 7.01% | -0.03% | +0% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.6% | 6.64% | -0.02% | -0.28% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.7% | 6.73% | -0.06% | +0.04% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.63% | 5.69% | +0.01% | +0% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.88% | 7.09% | -0.03% | +0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.06% | 6.2% | -0.04% | +0.08% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.71% | 6.75% | -0.02% | -0.1% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates — as we've seen frequently recently, especially over tariffs.
Here are the thoughts of Comerica Bank's chief economist on this week's economic reports:
"The March jobs report will probably show a modest increase in employment and a small uptick in the unemployment rate. The average workweek is
expected to have edged higher, while wages likely rose moderately. Job openings likely eased in February. The ISM Manufacturing PMI will probably report that the manufacturing sector slipped back into contraction last month. The ISM Services PMI, on the other hand, is expected to show continued expansion of the services sector, though at a slower pace. Construction spending likely eased in February. The trade deficit in goods and services probably narrowed in February on the back of a lower goods trade shortfall."
Mortgage rates today
There are a few economic reports on this morning's MarketWatch economic calendar. Two are purchasing managers' indices (PMIs) for the manufacturing sector, which are surveys of activity in organizations' purchasing departments. One is from the Institute for Supply Management, and the other from S&P Global.
Here is what markets are expecting from today's more important reports:
- March manufacturing PMI from S&P Global — 49.8, unchanged since February
- March manufacturing PMI from the ISM — 49.5%, down from February's 50.3%
- February job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS) — 7.7 million openings, unchanged since January
- February construction spending — Up by 0.3% compared to January's -0.2%
Bad weather that month skewed both the January figures.
As a general rule, mortgage rates tend to fall when actual figures are smaller than markets are expecting and rise when they're bigger.
Later this week
Wednesday is "Liberation Day," when many new tariffs are scheduled to be unveiled (see above). Mortgage rates could rise if the tariffs are milder than Wall Street fears. But those rates could fall if they're more savage than expected.
This week's other big day is Friday. That's when the March jobs report is due to land. And that's often the single most consequential economic report in any given month.
Meanwhile, there are reports that can be influential due every day this week, starting today. We'll walk you through them all as the week progresses.
