1981 Was The Scariest Halloween To Buy a House. 54 Halloweens Ranked
Many of today’s first-time homebuyers are spooked about buying a home.
Prices are scary, mortgage rates are playing tricks, and monthly payments are no treat.
But Halloween 2024 isn’t the scariest one on record as far as homebuying. Far from it.
Turns out that Halloween 1981 was the worst one ever to become a homeowner, and one of the worst periods in the history of homebuying.
In late October Halloween 1981, mortgage rates were near all-time highs in the U.S., hitting 18.4% the week before Halloween, according to Freddie Mac. The typical house payment, according to our methodology, would have used up 73% of the buyer’s median household income.
It’s a wonder renters didn’t simply take their bag of candy and go home.
How Scary Were The Early ‘80s For Homebuyers?
Some argue that home prices were so low in the 1980s that high rates didn’t matter. And yes, the median sales price was just $70,400 in 1981 versus $412,300 today, according to data from the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
But nominal home prices don’t tell you much. You have to adjust for incomes.
In October 1981, the median household income was about $19,000 per year, or $1,590 a month. We estimate a 5%-down house payment including taxes, insurance, and mortgage insurance would have been around $1,150, roughly three quarters of a buyer’s income. Today, a payment requires about half the median income.
Rates were truly astronomical. Even with low home prices (in today’s dollars), an estimated payment was out of reach for the typical buyer.
It was a downright ghostly time to be looking for a home.
But that doesn’t mean buying today is as easy as eating the full-size candy bar you used to get from your rich neighbor. Since 2022, affording a home has again become difficult.
On Halloween 2022, homes reached their second-least affordable point ever. A payment required 58% of the median income that year.
Affordability in 2024 has improved but isn’t much better: it still takes about 47% of the median income according to our estimates, roughly the same as right before the housing crash.
Halloween in Year | 30-Year Mortgage Rate | Median Home Price | Payment as % of Income* |
1981 | 18.44% | $70,400 | 73% |
2006 | 6.40% | $245,400 | 47% |
2022 | 7.08% | $442,600 | 58% |
2024 | 6.44% | $412,300 | 47% |
*See methodology below.
The silver lining is that homebuyers of Halloweens past have overcome similar challenges today’s buyers are facing. Payments required about half a buyer’s income from 1978 to 1990, and again in the mid-2000s, and once more from 2022 to today. Renters continued to become homeowners through it all.
The Best Halloweens To Buy a Home
Three Halloweens stand out as the best in history to buy a home.
The best on record was 1971 (that’s as far back as mortgage rate data goes). Rates were reasonable, in the mid-7s. Home prices cost only about three times the median income compared to five times today. A 20% down payment would run you $5,100 – about $40,000 in today’s dollars. A $40,000 down payment would only equate to about 10% down today.
All Hallows Eve 2011 was another banner day to buy. A home payment would eat up only about one-third of the typical income. Home prices were down about 10% from their 2006 peak, and mortgage rates were just 4.10%.
And, if today’s homebuyers had a time machine, the first thing they might consider is going back to October 31, 2020. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 2.8% and it took less than 34% of the median income to afford a 5%-down mortgage.
Halloween in Year | Home Price | Mortgage Rate | Payment as % of Median Income* | Home Price as Multiple of Median Income |
1971 | $25,500 | 7.63% | 28% | 2.8X |
2011 | $221,100 | 4.10% | 33% | 4.4X |
2020 | $338,600 | 2.8% | 33% | 5.0X |
*See methodology below.
54 Halloweens Ranked: Least Scary to Scariest to Buy a Home
We ranked every Halloween back to 1971 from least scary to scariest, based on the percentage of income required for a house payment.
Rank | Halloween in Year | Payment as % of Median Income | Avg. Mortgage Rate* | Median Sales Price |
1 | 1971 | 28.71% | 7.63% | $ 25,500 |
2 | 1972 | 30.11% | 7.42% | $ 29,200 |
3 | 2011 | 33.57% | 4.10% | $ 221,100 |
4 | 2020 | 33.76% | 2.81% | $ 338,600 |
5 | 2010 | 34.98% | 4.23% | $ 224,300 |
6 | 2019 | 35.09% | 3.75% | $ 327,100 |
7 | 2012 | 35.29% | 3.41% | $ 251,700 |
8 | 1973 | 35.59% | 8.68% | $ 34,000 |
9 | 2009 | 36.21% | 5.03% | $ 219,000 |
10 | 1998 | 37.55% | 6.83% | $ 153,000 |
11 | 2016 | 37.87% | 3.47% | $ 310,900 |
12 | 2001 | 38.09% | 6.64% | $ 171,100 |
13 | 1997 | 38.75% | 7.35% | $ 144,200 |
14 | 1993 | 38.90% | 6.86% | $ 127,000 |
15 | 2015 | 39.48% | 3.76% | $ 302,500 |
16 | 1974 | 40.01% | 9.94% | $ 37,200 |
17 | 1975 | 40.07% | 9.26% | $ 41,200 |
18 | 1976 | 40.09% | 8.90% | $ 45,500 |
19 | 2013 | 40.14% | 4.13% | $ 273,600 |
20 | 1995 | 40.59% | 7.45% | $ 138,000 |
21 | 2021 | 40.85% | 3.14% | $ 414,000 |
22 | 2008 | 40.99% | 6.46% | $ 222,500 |
23 | 2002 | 41.04% | 6.31% | $ 190,100 |
24 | 2003 | 41.13% | 6.05% | $ 198,800 |
25 | 2017 | 41.42% | 3.94% | $ 337,900 |
26 | 2018 | 41.45% | 4.86% | $ 322,800 |
27 | 2014 | 41.89% | 3.98% | $ 298,900 |
28 | 1996 | 42.00% | 7.86% | $ 144,100 |
29 | 2000 | 42.01% | 7.68% | $ 172,900 |
30 | 1999 | 42.34% | 7.96% | $ 165,300 |
31 | 1977 | 42.52% | 8.90% | $ 51,600 |
32 | 2007 | 43.52% | 6.33% | $ 238,400 |
33 | 1992 | 43.69% | 8.21% | $ 126,000 |
34 | 1991 | 44.57% | 8.91% | $ 120,000 |
35 | 2004 | 44.72% | 5.64% | $ 228,800 |
36 | 1986 | 45.99% | 9.95% | $ 95,000 |
37 | 1994 | 46.19% | 9.03% | $ 132,000 |
38 | 2006 | 46.95% | 6.40% | $ 245,400 |
39 | 1978 | 46.99% | 9.88% | $ 59,000 |
40 | 2024 | 47.32% | 6.44% | $ 412,300 |
41 | 2005 | 47.51% | 6.15% | $ 243,600 |
42 | 1990 | 49.67% | 10.17% | $ 121,500 |
43 | 1985 | 51.00% | 12.07% | $ 86,800 |
44 | 1988 | 51.37% | 10.22% | $ 113,900 |
45 | 1989 | 51.56% | 9.82% | $ 124,800 |
46 | 1979 | 52.55% | 12.00% | $ 62,600 |
47 | 2023 | 54.02% | 7.79% | $ 423,200 |
48 | 1983 | 54.81% | 13.43% | $ 75,900 |
49 | 1987 | 55.29% | 10.97% | $ 111,500 |
50 | 1984 | 55.75% | 14.05% | $ 79,900 |
51 | 1982 | 55.85% | 14.15% | $ 71,600 |
52 | 2022 | 57.78% | 7.08% | $ 442,600 |
53 | 1980 | 57.98% | 13.85% | $ 66,400 |
54 | 1981 | 72.66% | 18.44% | $ 70,400 |
*See methodology below
Will Homebuying Be Less Frightening by Halloween 2025?
How will Halloween 2025 shake out for home shoppers?
It’s impossible to tell, but we can look at Fannie Mae’s late-2025 predictions to get an idea.
The agency predicts home prices will rise by 3.6% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2025. That means homes might cost around $427,000.
What about rates? Fannie Mae predicts a 5.6%, 30-year fixed mortgage by Q4 2025. Put those together with the same assumptions as the rest of our study, and you have about a $100 lower monthly payment than today.
Halloween 2024 | Fannie Mae Q4 2025 Projection | |
Mortgage Rates | 6.4% | 5.6% |
Home Price | $412,300 | $427,000 |
Payment* | $3,178 | $3,073 |
*See methodology below
But projections are just that. Rates and home prices could be drastically different than expected.
How To Score a Home This Halloween
Buying a home this Halloween won’t be an easy task. Monthly costs are still high compared to incomes.
However, there are some hacks that not many people know about that could help.
Buying Toward The End of the Year: Attom Data analyzed 39 million home sales and found that fall and early winter are the best times to get a deal on a house.
Down Payment Assistance: There are thousands of programs across the country to help homebuyers overcome the initial cash investment. Some may even help you with up to a 3-5% down payment.
USDA Loan: The United States Department of Agriculture offers zero-down loans for rural and suburban homes within eligible areas. These mortgages come with low rates, too.
Downpayment Gift: Ask family for a financial gift of any amount to apply toward a down payment. You can even use funds received for wedding gifts toward your house.
FHA Loans are lenient when it comes to debt-to-income ratios. You might qualify for more than you think.
Don’t Get Spooked By This Housing Market
Buying a house isn’t as easy as it once was, but you may not want to put off homebuying until some Halloween in the future. Home prices are expected to continue marching upwards and mortgage rates are unpredictable.
Start now, and next year at this time you might be handing out full-size candy bars to neighborhood kids, right from your own front porch.
Methodology
To determine the scariest Halloween to buy a home, we looked at a few factors to make a carmel-apples-to-carmel-apples comparison over the years:
The average 30-year mortgage rate reported by Freddie Mac the week before Halloween each year (10/17 data used for 2024, the most recent available before publishing).
Median home sales price in the fourth quarter each year as reported by the Census Bureau/HUD.
Median household income from the Census Bureau (2023 used for 2024, the most recent available).
We then calculated an estimated payment assuming 5% down including principal, interest, 1% property tax, 0.35% homeowners insurance, 0.78% PMI rate per MGIC. Rates, payments, and affordability are estimates only and for example purposes. Consumers should check with a lender their personalized rate, payment, and home price analysis.
