Mortgage Rates Today, Oct. 25, 2024: Don't Bank on Rates Respite Lasting
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.84% today, a decrease of 0.03% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.9%, down by 0.02%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.19%, having stayed the same. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.19%, reflecting a decrease of 0.02%.
In brief
Excuse us while we wipe some egg from our faces. Yesterday, we thought, " ... we might see higher mortgage rates today and for days or weeks to come."
So, naturally, mortgage rates caught a tiny break that very day. They rose more slowly than recently by our readings and fell almost imperceptibly by others'.
What happened?
MarketWatch unhelpfully informs us, "Treasury yields finished lower on Thursday, held down by renewed demand for U.S. government debt from buyers." (Mortgage rates and the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds are closely related, though not formally tied.)
Well, yeah. But why the renewed demand? No reason was provided.
One possible explanation is a pause in Trump trades. Regular readers will know these are trades in stocks, bonds and other capital assets based on expectations of a victory by former President Donald Trump in the presidential election on Nov. 5.
They've helped some sectors, especially for cryptocurrencies. But they've generally pushed bond yields and mortgage rates higher.
We can't be sure there was a pause yesterday in Trump trades. But it would make sense.
Election betting markets
Why? Well, some Trump trades were based on election betting markets, which were showing a growing Trump lead.
Some investors thought these were better indicators of reality than opinion polls. Elon Musk wrote on X (formerly Twitter) earlier this month, "Trump now leads Kamala by 3% in betting markets. More accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line."
However, yesterday it emerged that $28 million wagered through four "whale" (outsized) accounts on one betting platform came in the form of cryptocurrency from a single source, a French citizen.
That raised the possibility of betting markets being rigged, something that may have caused a pause in Trump trades.
So far, this is just speculation. We'll see over the next few business days whether it's borne out by events.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.84% | 6.88% | -0.03% | +0.72% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.9% | 5.96% | -0.02% | +0.78% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.19% | 7.02% | +0% | +0.72% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.23% | 6.38% | -0.08% | +0.74% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.14% | 6.29% | -0.09% | +0.64% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.19% | 7.21% | -0.02% | +0.64% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.55% | 6.59% | +0.02% | +0.08% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.82% | 6.86% | -0.03% | +0.68% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.72% | 5.79% | -0.03% | +0.78% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.18% | 7.01% | +0% | +0.72% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.24% | 6.39% | -0.08% | +0.75% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.75% | 6.82% | +0.21% | +0.35% |
Coming up
It's unlikely that yesterday's economic reports had much effect on mortgage rates. Three of the four data points were better than expected, which would normally exert upward pressure on mortgage rates. The fourth came in on-forecast.Mortgage rates today
Here's what MarketWatch says markets are expecting from this morning's two reports:
- Durable goods orders in September — Contracting by -1.0% compared to August's 0.0%
- Consumer sentiment in October — Improving very slightly to 69.0 from September's 68.9
Remember, mortgage rates tend to fall when the economy's performing worse than markets are expecting. But any impact on mortgage rates from today's data is likely to be limited and temporary.
Next week
Things really liven up next week. We're due new gross domestic product (GDP) data that Wednesday, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation the following day, and the all-important jobs report the day after that.
And, of course, the following Tuesday, Nov. 5, brings the presidential election. As soon as the result is known, Trump trades will either go nuclear or evaporate. In the latter case, mortgage rates could fall as investors rewind their mistaken trades.
Peter Warden has been covering mortgage, real estate, and personal finance for 15 years. He has appeared on The Mortgage Reports, Credit Sesame, Bills.com, and other publications.
