Mortgage Rates Today, Oct. 24, 2024: Bad Week for Rates Looks Set to Continue
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.87% today, an increase of 0.01% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.92%, up by 0.03%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.19%, having risen by 0.03. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.21%, reflecting an increase of 0.01%.
In brief
Nobody knows the future. But recent news stories suggest we might see higher mortgage rates today and for days or weeks to come.
Over the last few days, we've explained why Trump trades might be a leading cause of higher mortgage rates. Many investors and economists think former President Donald Trump's policies on tariffs and immigration could reignite inflation. And his tax cuts might significantly increase the federal deficit and debt.
Earlier this month, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan, non-profit organization, issued a report. "Under our central estimate, Vice President Harris’s plan would increase the debt by $3.50 trillion through 2035, while President Trump’s plan would increase the debt by $7.50 trillion," it said.
(Of course, Mr. Trump's policies would doubtless bring benefits in other areas. But the bond investors who largely determine mortgage rates especially fear high inflation and deficits.)
The greater the probability of Mr. Trump winning the Nov. 5 presidential election, the more impact Trump trades are likely to have. And, yesterday, The Wall Street Journal said, "Donald Trump has opened a narrow lead in the presidential race, as voters have adopted a more positive view of his agenda and past performance and a more negative view of Kamala Harris, a new Wall Street Journal poll finds."
Of course, the Journal's is just one poll among many. But the newspaper does have an exceptional reach among investors, analysts, influencers and traders.
Unfriendly data
Meanwhile, economic data aren't helping keep mortgage rates low. Currently, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow forecast says it expects gross domestic product (GDP) to come in at 3.4% during the third quarter of this year, up from 3.0% in the previous quarter.
Mortgage rates famously tend to fall when the economy is struggling and rise when it's thriving. And, if GDP really does come in at 3.4% when the official report is published next Wednesday, that would support a ton of other evidence that the economy is doing very well indeed.
There is a glimmer of hope. We're due the October jobs report next Friday, Nov. 1. And that's currently the most consequential of all economic reports for mortgage rates.
The good news is that it may well come in worse than September's owing to hurricanes and strikes during the month. The bad is that markets are expecting that. So, its impact on mortgage rates may be muted.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.87% | 6.9% | +0.01% | +0.72% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.92% | 5.98% | +0.03% | +0.81% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.19% | 7.02% | +0.03% | +0.71% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.31% | 6.47% | +0.01% | +0.8% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.23% | 6.37% | +0% | +0.69% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.21% | 7.24% | +0.01% | +0.64% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.53% | 6.56% | +0.09% | +0.04% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.85% | 6.89% | +0.01% | +0.71% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.75% | 5.81% | +0.01% | +0.8% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.18% | 7.01% | +0.02% | +0.71% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.32% | 6.47% | +0.01% | +0.81% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.55% | 6.58% | +0.06% | +0.13% |
Coming up
None of the remaining economic reports this week tends to have a significant or abiding effect on mortgage rates. And, with Trump trades apparently so strong, they may well get completely lost.
But, in case any do poke through the gloom, we'll brief you on their details.
Mortgage rates today
This morning's key economic reports are two October "flash" (preliminary) purchasing managers' indexes (PMIs) from S&P Global. There's one for the services sector and another for manufacturing.
These reports are likely to be the most consequential for mortgage rates this week. But even PMIs usually have only a limited and temporary effect.
Today's calendar brings a couple more economic reports. September new home sales rarely make much difference to mortgage rates. But, with employment currently in the spotlight, it's possible that initial jobless claims for the week ending Oct. 19 might move them a little bit.
MarketWatch says markets are expecting this morning's reports to deliver the following:
- October services PMI — Inching up to 55.3 from September's 55.2
- October manufacturing PMI — Edging up to 47.5 from September's 47.3
- Initial jobless claims for the week ending Oct. 19 — 245,000, slightly up from the previous week's 241,000
- September new home sales — 720,000, slightly up from August's 716,000
Remember, mortgage rates tend to fall when the economy's performing worse than markets are expecting. That means we'd like to see lower-than-expected numbers for all those reports except initial jobless claims. We want a higher-than-expected number for that one.
Tomorrow
Here's what MarketWatch says markets are expecting for tomorrow's two reports:
- Durable goods orders in September — Contracting by -1.0% compared to August's 0.0%
- Consumer sentiment in October — Improving to 69.0 from September's 68.9
Again, any impact on mortgage rates from these is likely to be limited and temporary.
Peter Warden has been covering mortgage, real estate, and personal finance for 15 years. He has appeared on The Mortgage Reports, Credit Sesame, Bills.com, and other publications.
