Mortgage Rates Today, Oct. 23, 2024: A Trump Trade Is in Play
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.86% today, an increase of 0.05% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.89%, up by 0.05%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.16%, having risen by 0.01. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.2%, reflecting an increase of 0.08%.
In brief
Yesterday afternoon, The Wall Street Journal ran a story under the headline, "Wall Street Pros Get Into Position to Profit From a Trump Win."
"Some large hedge funds and money managers, sensing a potential shift in momentum, are getting behind trades that could pay out if Donald Trump beats Kamala Harris in the presidential election," the article began.
Even though the most recent polls show both presidential candidates kneck and kneck, some activist investors are wagering on the former president to win. And that could easily explain most of Monday's appreciable rise in mortgage rates.
Later in the same article, the Journal gave an example of a Trump trade. It said Mark Dowding, a chief investment officer at RBC BlueBay Asset Management, "is betting the dollar will strengthen and the U.S. yield curve will steepen, meaning long-term rates will go up more than short-term ones."
There aren't many longer-term rates than those for mortgages. So, the implication is that a Trump victory (and current trading that anticipates a Trump victory) is likely to push mortgage rates yet higher.
Expect mortgage rates to be very sensitive to changes in poll numbers between now and election day on Nov. 5.
Meanwhile, Democrats may feel aggrieved that they don't score more highly among voters for economic competence. Another headline from yesterday's Journal read, "U.S. Economy Again Leads the World, IMF Says," referring to the International Monetary Fund.
"The U.S. is increasingly pulling ahead of the world’s advanced economies, with a surge of investment paying off in higher productivity and wages," according to the Journal's report of the IMF's comments.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.86% | 6.9% | +0.05% | +0.72% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.89% | 5.96% | +0.05% | +0.81% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.16% | 6.99% | +0.01% | +0.69% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.3% | 6.45% | +0.16% | +0.8% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.23% | 6.37% | +0.03% | +0.7% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.2% | 7.23% | +0.08% | +0.64% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.44% | 6.48% | -0.28% | -0.06% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.84% | 6.87% | +0.05% | +0.73% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.73% | 5.8% | +0.04% | +0.81% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.15% | 6.99% | +0.02% | +0.7% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.3% | 6.46% | +0.16% | +0.8% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.48% | 6.52% | -0.26% | +0.06% |
Coming up
Mortgage rates today
It's another day on which economic reports are unlikely to affect mortgage rates much. We have only one on this morning's calendar: existing home sales figures for September.
Markets are expecting those to come in at 3.84 million that month on a year-over-year basis, down from 3.86 million in August. Mortgage rates are rarely moved by these reports, and they'd need to contain shockingly good or bad numbers to have a noticeable impact.
This afternoon's Federal Reserve Beige Book isn't empirical enough to be treated as a mainstream economic report. The Fed describes it thus:
"Each Federal Reserve Bank gathers anecdotal information on current economic conditions in its District through reports from Bank and Branch directors and interviews with key business contacts, economists, market experts, and other sources. The Beige Book summarizes this information by District and sector. An overall summary of the twelve district reports is prepared by a designated Federal Reserve Bank on a rotating basis."
Again, it would need to contain big surprises to move mortgage rates far.
Tomorrow
The same can't be said for two October "flash" (preliminary) purchasing managers' indexes (PMIs) from S&P Global, due tomorrow morning. There's one for the services sector and another for manufacturing.
These reports are likely to be the most consequential economic reports for mortgage rates this week. But PMIs usually have only a limited and temporary effect.
Thursday's calendar brings a couple more economic reports. September new home sales rarely make much difference to mortgage rates. But, with employment currently in the spotlight, it's possible that initial jobless claims for the week ending Oct. 19 might move them a little bit.
MarketWatch says markets are expecting tomorrow's reports to deliver the following:
- October services PMI — Inching up to 55.3 from September's 55.2
- October manufacturing PMI — Edging up to 47.5 from September's 47.3
- Initial jobless claims for the week ending Oct. 19 — 245,000, slightly up from the previous week's 241,000
- September new home sales — 720,000, slightly up from August's 716,000
Remember, mortgage rates tend to fall when the economy's performing worse than markets are expecting. That means we'd like to see lower-than-expected numbers for all those reports except initial jobless claims. We want a higher-than-expected number for that one.
Friday
Two reports are on Friday's schedule. They're for durable goods orders in September and consumer sentiment in October.
Again, any impact on mortgage rates from these is likely to be limited and temporary. And we'll brief you more fully on them tomorrow.
Peter Warden has been covering mortgage, real estate, and personal finance for 15 years. He has appeared on The Mortgage Reports, Credit Sesame, Bills.com, and other publications.
